Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) Is a Trending Stock: Facts to Know Before Betting on It

Gilead Sciences (GILD) has been one of the most searched-for stocks on Zacks.com lately. So, you might want to look at some of the facts that could shape the stock's performance in the near term.Shares of this HIV and hepatitis C drugmaker have returned -3.1% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +6% change. The Zacks Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry, to which Gilead belongs, has gained 3.2% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?While media releases or rumors about a substantial change in a company's business prospects usually make its stock 'trending' and lead to an immediate price change, there are always some fundamental facts that eventually dominate the buy-and-hold decision-making.Revisions to Earnings EstimatesRather than focusing on anything else, we at Zacks prioritize evaluating the change in a company's earnings projection. This is because we believe the fair value for its stock is determined by the present value of its future stream of earnings.We essentially look at how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest business trends. And if earnings estimates go up for a company, the fair value for its stock goes up. A higher fair value than the current market price drives investors' interest in buying the stock, leading to its price moving higher. This is why empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.For the current quarter, Gilead is expected to post earnings of $1.99 per share, indicating a change of -1% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged over the last 30 days.The consensus earnings estimate of $7.92 for the current fiscal year indicates a year-over-year change of +71.4%. This estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days.For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $8.48 indicates a change of +7.1% from what Gilead is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed +1.1%.With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Gilead.The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:12 Month EPSRevenue Growth ForecastEven though a company's earnings growth is arguably the best indicator of its financial health, nothing much happens if it cannot raise its revenues. It's almost impossible for a company to grow its earnings without growing its revenue for long periods. Therefore, knowing a company's potential revenue growth is crucial.For Gilead, the consensus sales estimate for the current quarter of $7 billion indicates a year-over-year change of +0.7%. For the current and next fiscal years, $28.64 billion and $29.9 billion estimates indicate -0.4% and +4.4% changes, respectively.Last Reported Results and Surprise HistoryGilead reported revenues of $6.67 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -0.3%. EPS of $1.81 for the same period compares with -$1.32 a year ago.Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.84 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of -2.46%. The EPS surprise was -0.55%.Over the last four quarters, Gilead surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times. The company topped consensus revenue estimates three times over this period.ValuationNo investment decision can be efficient without considering a stock's valuation. Whether a stock's current price rightly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects is an essential determinant of its future price performance.While comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.Gilead is graded B on this front, indicating that it is trading at a discount to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.ConclusionThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Gilead. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.Zacks' Research Chief Picks Stock Most Likely to "At Least Double"Our experts have revealed their Top 5 recommendations with money-doubling potential – and Director of Research Sheraz Mian believes one is superior to the others. Of course, all our picks aren’t winners but this one could far surpass earlier recommendations like Hims & Hers Health, which shot up +209%.See Our Top Stock to Double (Plus 4 Runners Up) >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks