PJM Winter Outlook: Adequate Power Supplies Available To Serve Growing Demand Under Expected Conditions

Reserve Margins Continue To Tighten; Generator Performance Crucial

VALLEY FORGE, Pa., Nov. 3, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- PJM and its members have sufficient resources to serve the 67 million people in its footprint this winter under expected conditions, though electricity demand continues to outpace the addition of new generating resources.

PJM, the grid operator for 13 states and the District of Columbia, expects to have 180,800 MW of operational capacity to serve a forecasted peak electricity demand of approximately 145,700 MW, which would set a new record if reached. This expectation is based on PJM and the PJM resources continuing to take operational steps to improve generator performance during extreme winter conditions.

PJM reached an all-time winter high of 143,700 MW on Jan. 22 of this year, 2,000 MW less than this winter's forecast peak. PJM has added approximately 4,800 MW of new generation (nameplate capacity) since last winter, most of it solar; that translates to approximately 1,000 MW more operational capacity for the 2025–2026 winter.

PJM forecasts a generation reserve margin of 7,500 MW, after taking into account expected generation outages, electricity exports and other factors. This is down from 8,700 MW last year. This margin factors in winter generation performance that has improved since Winter Storm Elliott; that margin could shrink further if generators perform poorly.

"The grid is set up to keep the power flowing reliably this winter under forecast conditions, but the tightening of our margins will begin to impact us in the next few years if it continues," said Aftab Khan, Executive Vice President – Operations, Planning and Security. "PJM is working on multiple levels with all of our stakeholders to reverse this trend of demand growing faster than we can add generation."

To develop its winter scenario forecasts, PJM analyzes expected electricity demand, weather predictions and other factors. The National Weather Service predicts a slightly warmer winter for the Atlantic seaboard, with typical temperatures – but above-average precipitation – in PJM's midwestern states of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan and Ohio.

PJM also expects to remain reliable through several more extreme, but less likely, cold weather scenarios in which lower amounts of power generation are available and there is more demand within PJM or in external systems in need of PJM's assistance for reliability. PJM's scenario analyses include load of up to 150,300 MW; those studies show that system reliability is maintained under most scenarios, including expected outages. Significantly higher levels of generator outages, however, such as those that occurred during Winter Storm Elliott (~46,000 MW), could leave the system vulnerable to power outages.

PJM and stakeholders take a number of actions to prepare for cold weather, outlined in its Cold Weather Preparation Guideline and Checklist, contained in Manual 14D, Attachment N. These protocols incorporate lessons learned from past severe events, including Winter Storm Elliott (2022), Winter Storm Uri (2021) and Winter Storm Enzo (2025).

This year, PJM will request generators provide extreme cold weather temperature data per standards approved by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) on Oct. 1. PJM continues to build its database of minimum operating temperatures for its generation fleet to better understand the limitations of certain generators in extreme cold.

PJM will also perform unannounced operational tests of generators that have not run for several weeks leading into the winter. These tests are performed in advance of extreme weather or high system demand to help ensure that these resources are fully functional and ready to operate when needed.

PJM and ReliabilityFirst, which oversees reliability for NERC in much of the PJM footprint, will double the number of winter preparedness site visits to 30 generation facilities, ensuring that winterization best practices and lessons learned are shared systemwide.

During the fall, PJM meets with regulators and neighboring system operators to review winter preparations. PJM also conducts weekly operational review meetings during the winter with major natural gas pipelines to coordinate operations serving the natural gas fleet.

"Generator performance will be critical to maintaining reliability this winter," said Michael Bryson, Sr. Vice President – Operations. "We are encouraged by the work we have seen by generation owners to fortify their units for winter operations, and we will continue to focus on communication and coordination that help us understand how PJM can help to mitigate gas scheduling challenges or other generator limitations."

PJM Interconnection, founded in 1927, ensures the reliability of the high-voltage electric power system serving 67 million people in all or parts of Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia and the District of Columbia. PJM coordinates and directs the operation of the region's transmission grid, which includes 88,333 miles of transmission lines; administers a competitive wholesale electricity market; and plans regional transmission expansion improvements to maintain grid reliability and relieve congestion. PJM's regional grid and market operations produce annual savings of $3.2 billion to $4 billion. For the latest news about PJM, visit PJM Inside Lines at insidelines.pjm.com.

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SOURCE PJM Interconnection