Regency Centers to Post Q3 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Regency Centers Corp. REG is slated to report third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 28, after the closing bell. The company’s quarterly results are likely to display year-over-year growth in revenues and funds from operations (FFO) per share.In the last reported quarter, this Jacksonville, FL-based retail real estate investment trust (REIT) reported NAREIT FFO per share of $1.16, outpacing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.12. Results reflected healthy leasing activity and a year-over-year improvement in the same property's net operating income and base rent.Over the trailing four quarters, the company’s FFO per share exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate on all occasions, with the average beat being 2.30%. This is depicted in the graph below: Regency Centers Corporation Price and EPS Surprise Regency Centers Corporation price-eps-surprise | Regency Centers Corporation Quote In this article, we will dive deep into the U.S. retail real estate market environment and the company's fundamentals and analyze the factors that may have contributed to its third-quarter 2025 performance.U.S. Retail Real Estate Market in Q3 2025Per a Cushman & Wakefield CWK report, there has been a positive shift in net absorption for the U.S. shopping center market in the third quarter of 2025. Asking rents for the U.S. shopping center market grew from the year-ago quarter. While the national vacancy rate increased year over year, it remained flat compared to the previous quarter.Demand for retail space improved in the third quarter of 2025, with the overall U.S. shopping center market witnessing positive net absorption totaling 323,000 square feet against the negative 6.5 million square feet (msf) reported in the previous quarter. The increase was due to positive net absorption observed in the southern region of the country.Asking rents for the U.S. shopping centers came in at $25.01 per square foot in the third quarter, up 1.8% from a year ago. However, the pace of rent growth slowed from early 2024, when it was trending at 4%.The national vacancy rate for the U.S. shopping center markets remained at 5.8% in the third quarter, unchanged from the previous quarter but up by 50 basis points compared to a year before. The rate held steady thanks to the market rebounding from negative absorption earlier in the year, although the risk of more store closures and hesitancy among both consumers and retailers looms.The lack of new construction is also contributing to the scarcity, as only 7.9 million square feet (msf) of new shopping center space was delivered from the beginning of the year through Oct. 14, 2025. As of the third quarter of 2025, there are only 11.7 msf under construction with an inventory of 4.28 billion square feet.Factors at Play for RegencyRegency has a high-quality open-air shopping center portfolio, with more than 85% grocery-anchored neighborhood and community centers. These centers are necessity-driven by nature and attract dependable traffic. Moreover, the company has a good tenant mix, with several industry-leading grocers. These factors are likely to have helped it generate stable rental revenues during the third quarter.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for REG’s third-quarter revenues is pegged at $385.3 million, which indicates an increase of 6.9% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.The company’s activities during the to-be-reported quarter were adequate to garner analysts’ confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly FFO per share has increased a cent to $1.15 in the past month. The figure implies growth of nearly 7.5% from the prior-year quarter’s reported number.However, higher e-commerce adoption and elevated interest expenses are expected to cast a pall on its quarterly performance to some extent.What Our Quantitative Model Predicts for RegencyOur proven model predicts a likely surprise in terms of FFO per share for Regency this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an FFO beat, which is the case here.Regency currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.41% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.Other Stocks That Warrant a LookHere are two other stocks from the retail REIT sector — EPR Properties EPR and Federal Realty Investment Trust FRT — that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to report a surprise this quarter.EPR, scheduled to report quarterly numbers on Oct. 29, has an Earnings ESP of +1.29% and carries a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.FRT, slated to release quarterly numbers on Oct. 31, has an Earnings ESP of +0.26% and carries a Zacks Rank of 2 at present.Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represents funds from operations (FFO), a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.Beyond Nvidia: AI's Second Wave Is HereThe AI revolution has already minted millionaires. But the stocks everyone knows about aren't likely to keep delivering the biggest profits. Little-known AI firms tackling the world's biggest problems may be more lucrative in the coming months and years.See "2nd Wave" AI stocks now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT): Free Stock Analysis Report Regency Centers Corporation (REG): Free Stock Analysis Report EPR Properties (EPR): Free Stock Analysis Report Cushman & Wakefield PLC (CWK): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks