Steel Dynamics Projects Sequentially Lower Q4 Earnings on Seasonality

Steel Dynamics, Inc. STLD has announced earnings guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025 in the range of $1.65 to $1.69 per share. This view implies an increase from $1.36 reported in the fourth quarter of 2024. Still, it represents a notable sequential decline from the $2.74 in the third quarter of 2025, primarily due to seasonal demand softness and operational headwinds.  STLD Q4 Profit Pressured, Demand Outlook FirmThe company attributed the lower expected profitability in its steel operations primarily to reduced average realized selling prices for steel and lower shipment volumes, which were adversely impacted by typical seasonal weakness and extended planned maintenance outages at its flat-rolled steel mills, resulting in production curtailment of 140,000–150,000 tons. Additionally, average indexed hot-rolled steel prices fell significantly from July through October 2025, which exerted downward pressure on selling values due to lagging pricing terms in commercial contracts.  Earnings from the company’s metals recycling and steel fabrication segments are also expected to be lower on a sequential basis, partly due to reduced seasonal shipments. Despite these challenges, Steel Dynamics highlighted steady order activity and a robust backlog extending into the second quarter of 2026, with expectations of improved volumes as interest rates potentially decline and infrastructure spending supports future demand.  The company also continued with commissioning and start-up of the aluminum flat rolled products mill and San Luis Potosi satellite recycled slab center. It also repurchased approximately $200 million of its common stock during the fourth quarter.  Steel Dynamics plans to release fourth-quarter 2025 financial results on Jan. 26, 2026, ahead of the opening bell.  Shares of STLD are up 38.7% in the past six months compared with the industry’s 36% rise. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchSTLD Zacks Rank & Key PicksSTLD carries a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold). Some better-ranked stocks in the Basic Materials space are Commercial Metals Company CMC, Ternium S.A. TX and Salzgitter AG SZGPY. CMC sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), while TX and SZGPY carry a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CMC’s current fiscal-year earnings is pegged at $7.05 per share, indicating a 125.2% year-over-year increase. Shares of CMC have soared 43% over the past six months. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TX’s current fiscal-year earnings stands at $2.96 per share, reflecting a 84% year-over-year increase. Shares of TX have gained 30.3% over the past six months. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SZGPY’s current fiscal-year loss is pegged at 12 cents per share, indicating an 83% year-over-year increase. Shares of SZGPY have jumped 100.2% over the past six months. Zacks' Research Chief Picks Stock Most Likely to "At Least Double"Our experts have revealed their Top 5 recommendations with money-doubling potential – and Director of Research Sheraz Mian believes one is superior to the others. Of course, all our picks aren’t winners but this one could far surpass earlier recommendations like Hims & Hers Health, which shot up +209%.See Our Top Stock to Double (Plus 4 Runners Up) >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD): Free Stock Analysis Report Ternium S.A. (TX): Free Stock Analysis Report Commercial Metals Company (CMC): Free Stock Analysis Report Salzgitter AG (SZGPY): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks