Alcoa Gears Up to Post Q3 Earnings: What Lies Ahead for the Stock?

Alcoa Corporation AA is likely to register an increase in the top line from last year’s quarterly reading when it reports third-quarter 2025 earnings on Oct. 22, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $3.02 billion, indicating an increase of 4.1% from the prior-year’s quarterly figure.The bottom line of this leading producer of bauxite, alumina and aluminum products is expected to have declined from the earlier year’s quarterly figure. Over the past 30 days, the consensus estimate for earnings per share has decreased 116% to an adjusted loss of seven cents per share. The figure indicates an increase of 112.3% from last year’s quarterly level.The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 54.6%, on average, beating estimates all through.Key Factors to Note Ahead of AA’s ResultsAn increase in demand for products like slab, billet and rod in both Europe and North America is expected to have benefited Alcoa’s Aluminum segment in the third quarter of 2025. Also, the restart of the Alumar and Warrick smelter is likely to have aided the segment’s sales.For the third quarter, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Aluminum segment’s third-party sales is $2.11 billion, implying a 17% increase from the year-ago number. The consensus mark for the Aluminum segment’s total sales is pegged at $2.11 billion, indicating a 16.8% rise from the year-ago reported number.Synergistic gains from partnerships and acquisitions made by the company are expected to have boosted revenues. In March 2025, Alcoa and IGNIS EQT entered into a joint venture agreement. Under the agreement, AA owns 75% of the equity and continues to operate the San Ciprián production site. In August 2024, Alcoa acquired Alumina Limited. This acquisition bolstered its position as a pure-play and upstream aluminum company worldwide.Also, Alcoa's efforts to increase smelter and refinery capacity are likely to have supported its performance in the to-be-reported quarter.However, Alcoa’s Alumina segment’s results are expected to put up a weak show due to weakness in the bauxite market, arising from safety and environmental inspections. The consensus mark for the Alumina segment’s third-party sales is pegged at $813 million, implying an 18.9% decrease from the year-ago number. The consensus mark for the Alumina segment’s total sales is pegged at $1.40 billion, indicating a 15.5% decline from the year-ago number.Given the company’s extensive geographic presence, its operations are subject to global political risks and foreign exchange headwinds. A stronger U.S. dollar is likely to have hurt Alcoa's overseas business in the quarter.Alcoa Price and EPS Surprise Alcoa price-eps-surprise | Alcoa QuoteEarnings Whispers for AAOur proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for AA this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here, as elaborated below.Earnings ESP: AA has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%, as both the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at an adjusted loss of seven cents per share. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.Zacks Rank: AA presently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Stocks to ConsiderHere are some companies, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings in this reporting cycle.Illinois Tool Works, Inc. ITW has an Earnings ESP of +0.35% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. ITW is slated to release third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 24.Illinois Tool’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 2.3%.Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. SWK has an Earnings ESP of +3.59% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is scheduled to release third-quarter 2025 results on Nov. 4.Stanley Black’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, the average surprise being 57.3%.Sealed Air Corporation SEE has an Earnings ESP of +1.28% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. SEE is slated to release third-quarter 2025 results on Nov. 4.Sealed Air’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 19.0%.5 Stocks Set to DoubleEach was handpicked by a Zacks expert as the favorite stock to gain +100% or more in the months ahead. They includeStock #1: A Disruptive Force with Notable Growth and ResilienceStock #2: Bullish Signs Signaling to Buy the DipStock #3: One of the Most Compelling Investments in the MarketStock #4: Leader In a Red-Hot Industry Poised for GrowthStock #5: Modern Omni-Channel Platform Coiled to SpringMost of the stocks in this report are flying under Wall Street radar, which provides a great opportunity to get in on the ground floor. While not all picks can be winners, previous recommendations have soared +171%, +209% and +232%.Download Atomic Opportunity: Nuclear Energy's Comeback free today.Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW): Free Stock Analysis Report Alcoa (AA): Free Stock Analysis Report Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK): Free Stock Analysis Report Sealed Air Corporation (SEE): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks