Mattel Gears Up to Post Q4 Earnings: What Lies Ahead for the Stock?

Mattel, Inc. MAT is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 10, 2026, after the closing bell.MAT’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, the average surprise being 32.1%.Trend in the Estimate Revision of MATThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at 53 cents, indicating a surge of 51.4% from 35 cents reported in the year-ago quarter.For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at nearly $1.84 billion. The metric suggests a rise of 11.7% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.Mattel, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise Mattel, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Mattel, Inc. QuoteLet’s take a look at how things have shaped up in the quarter.Factors Likely to Shape Mattel’s Q4 ResultsMattel’s fourth-quarter performance is expected to have benefited from accelerating retailer orders and sustained consumer demand ahead of the holiday season. Improving point-of-sale trends across regions, particularly in the United States, and a rebound in shipments following third-quarter order deferrals are likely to have supported the company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.The U.S. business, which was pressured in the third quarter by retailer shifts from direct import to domestic shipping, appears poised for sequential improvement. As retailers transitioned toward more just-in-time ordering earlier in the year, shipments were deferred in the fourth quarter. With POS trends remaining positive and consumer demand holding up, retailers are likely to have accelerated domestic orders, aiding revenue recovery during the holiday period.Strong momentum in Hot Wheels, supported by expanding engagement from adult collectors, is likely to have aided the company’s performance in the quarter under review. Challenger categories, including action figures tied to franchises such as Jurassic World, Minecraft, WWE and Masters of the Universe, are likely to have supported fourth-quarter results.Dolls’ performance is expected to have shown early signs of stabilization in the quarter under review. Improving trends in Barbie, supported by packaging innovation, enhanced product segmentation, new play patterns and expanding adult offerings, are likely to have aided sequential performance during the holiday season.However, persistent macroeconomic challenges, including inflationary pressures, tariff-related costs and unfavorable foreign currency movements, are likely to have weighed on the company’s performance in the fourth quarter. Elevated advertising and promotional spend tied to the holiday season, along with the lagged flow-through of tariff costs embedded in inventory, might have exerted pressure on margins.What Our Model Says About MAT StockOur proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Mattel this time. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to beat earnings. However, that is not the case here.Earnings ESP for MAT: Mattel has an Earnings ESP of -18.61%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.Mattel’s Zacks Rank: The company has a Zacks Rank #3 at present.Stocks Poised to Beat on EarningsHere are some stocks from the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector that investors may consider, as our model indicates they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.Amer Sports, Inc. AS has an Earnings ESP of +5.69% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Amer Sports is expected to register a 58.8% increase in earnings for the to-be-reported quarter. Amer Sports reported better-than-expected earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 78%.Acushnet Holdings Corp. GOLF has an Earnings ESP of +10.05% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.Acushnet’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to decline 1200%. Acushnet reported better-than-expected earnings in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, the average surprise being 26.4%.Hilton Worldwide, Inc. HLT currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.08% and a Zacks Rank of 3.For the to-be-reported quarter, Hilton’s earnings are expected to increase 17.6%. Hilton reported better-than-expected earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 5.8%.Zacks' Research Chief Names "Stock Most Likely to Double"Our team of experts has just released the 5 stocks with the greatest probability of gaining +100% or more in the coming months. Of those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian highlights the one stock set to climb highest.This top pick is a little-known satellite-based communications firm. Space is projected to become a trillion dollar industry, and this company's customer base is growing fast. Analysts have forecasted a major revenue breakout in 2025. Of course, all our elite picks aren't winners but this one could far surpass earlier Zacks' Stocks Set to Double like Hims & Hers Health, which shot up +209%.Free: See Our Top Stock And 4 Runners UpWant the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Mattel, Inc. (MAT): Free Stock Analysis Report Acushnet (GOLF): Free Stock Analysis Report Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT): Free Stock Analysis Report Amer Sports, Inc. (AS): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks