Alcoa vs. Ryerson: Which Aluminum Stock Should You Bet On?

Alcoa Corporation AA and Ryerson Holding Corporation RYI are two prominent players in the aluminum sector with global operations and diversified portfolios. With aluminum prices remaining high, driven by global economic uncertainties and trade tensions, comparing these two industry participants is particularly relevant for investors seeking exposure to the Zacks Metal Products - Distribution industry.Aluminum has become an attractive investment over the past few years with growing popularity for lighter and energy-efficient electric vehicles, recycled aluminum and rechargeable batteries. The metal is witnessing increased demand as industries proceed toward the goal of sustainability and efficiency. Additionally, solid growth in global air travel has led aircraft manufacturers to ramp up production, spurring demand for aluminum alloys for fuselages and wings.Amid such a backdrop, let’s take a closer look at both the companies’ fundamentals, growth prospects and challenges to find out which one is a better investment today.The Case for AlcoaWith the increase in aluminum demand, the tariffs on metals are gaining traction. The U.S. administration in June 2025 increased tariffs on imported aluminum to 50% as a measure to correct trade imbalances and boost the domestic industry. The move has increased aluminum prices, thereby benefiting domestic producers like Alcoa.The company’s Aluminum segment is benefiting from strong demand in the electrical and packaging markets in North America and Europe, and the restart of the San Ciprián (Spain), Alumar (Brazil), and Lista (Norway) smelters. In 2025, Alcoa’s production from the Aluminum segment increased 5% on a year-over-year basis to 2,319 kilo metric tons.The segment’s third-party revenues in 2025 increased 15.6%, supported by an increase in average realized third-party price. For 2026, AA expects the Aluminum segment to produce 2.4-2.6 million tonnes, while shipments are anticipated to be in the band of 2.6-2.8 million tonnes.Alcoa’s Alumina segment is witnessing healthy production and improvement in productivity at its refineries. However, the closure of the company’s Kwinana refinery has been affecting its production and shipment volumes. In 2025, Alcoa’s production from the Alumina segment decreased 3.9% on a year-over-year basis to 9,640 kilometric tons. Nevertheless, AA expects alumina production in 2026 to be in the range of 9.7-9.9 million tonnes, while shipments are likely to be 11.8-12.0 million tonnes.AA has announced several strategic actions over the past year to boost its organic growth and simplify its business portfolio. In August 2024, it acquired Alumina Limited, which enhanced its position as one of the world’s largest bauxite and alumina producers. The buyout will provide Alcoa with long-term value creation due to greater financial and operational flexibility.The Case for RyersonRyerson’s diversified business structure allows it to mitigate the weakness in one end market with strength across others. The company is well placed to gain from higher infrastructure spending, reshoring and increased fabrication outsourcing, as well as restructuring of the manufacturing supply chain. Also, its investments in the non-ferrous polishing, buffing and grinding processes are likely to enhance its competency in the long run.The strongest driver of Ryerson’s business at the moment is strength in the aluminum product line. Shipments from the aluminum product line remained relatively stable year over year at 143,000 tons in the first nine months of 2025. Revenues from the product line increased 7.7% to $868 million, supported by higher metal prices.In the first nine months of the year, shipments from both the carbon steel and stainless steel product lines also remained stable. However, revenues from these product lines declined 8% and 4.2%, respectively, due to a decline in average selling prices. RYI expects fourth-quarter net sales to be $1.07-$1.11 billion, with a decline in customer shipments of 5-7% sequentially. Demand in the manufacturing and industrial metal industries is likely to remain muted in the near term, which might continue to affect its overall performance.High debt levels have also been a concern for Ryerson. It exited third-quarter 2025 with a long-term debt of $498.2 million, up 6.7% from 2024-end. Its current liabilities were $656.9 million, higher than the cash equivalents of about $29.8 million. Also, interest expenses in the first nine months of 2025 remained high at $29.4 million.How Does the Zacks Consensus Estimate Compare for AA & RYI?While the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Alcoa’s 2026 sales implies year-over-year growth of 7%, the same for earnings per share (EPS) indicates an increase of 18.3%. AA’s EPS estimates have been trending upward over the past 60 days for 2026.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for RYI’s 2026 sales and EPS implies year-over-year growth of 11.4% and 256.3%, respectively.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchPrice Performance and Valuation of AA & RYIIn the past year, Alcoa’s shares have surged 68.7%, while Ryerson stock has gained 38.7%.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchAlcoa is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 13.16X, below its median of 13.84X over the last three years. Ryerson’s forward earnings multiple sits at 22.23X, much higher than its median of 11.94X over the same time frame.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchFinal TakeAA’s robust momentum in the Aluminum segment and the restart of several smelters bode well for strong growth in the quarters ahead. Additionally, AA’s attractive valuation is more appealing and its upwardly revised estimates instil confidence.In contrast, Ryerson’s strength in the aluminum product line has been diluted by the weakness in the manufacturing and industrial metal industries. Also, RYI’s expensive valuation warrants a cautious approach for existing investors.Given these factors, AA seems a better pick for investors than RYI currently. While AA sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), Ryerson currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Radical New Technology Could Hand Investors Huge GainsQuantum Computing is the next technological revolution, and it could be even more advanced than AI.While some believed the technology was years away, it is already present and moving fast. 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Click to get this free report Alcoa (AA): Free Stock Analysis Report Ryerson Holding Corporation (RYI): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks