ExxonMobil Before Q3 Earnings: Stay Invested or Take Profits?

Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM is set to report third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 31, 2025, before the opening bell.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.78 per share, implying a decline of 7.3% from the year-ago reported number.  It witnessed four upward revisions and two downward movements in the past 30 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter revenues is currently pegged at $86.8 billion, suggesting a 3.6% decline from the year-ago actuals.XOM beat the consensus estimate for earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 4.87%. This is depicted in the graph below:   Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchQ3 Earnings Whispers for XOMOur proven model doesn’t predict an earnings beat for XOM this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here.The leading integrated energy player has an Earnings ESP of -0.17% and carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.XOM’s Factors to NoteIn its latest 8-K SEC filings, XOM stated that it is likely to have witnessed a sequential increase in its September quarter earnings by $200 million, thanks to the change in natural gas prices. Notably, the energy giant revealed that the oil price change might affect its third-quarter 2025 bottom line sequentially. This impact, as projected by XOM, is likely to be between a loss of $100 million and earnings of $300 million. Similarly, the natural gas price change is expected to have hurt its bottom line sequentially. XOM anticipated the impact to be in the range of a $200 million loss to a $200 million profit.To have an idea of how oil and natural gas prices behave in the September quarter, let's analyze the commodity prices from the data provided by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”). The average Cushing, OK, WTI spot prices for July, August and September of this year were $68.39 per barrel, $64.86 per barrel and $63.96 per barrel, respectively, per EIA data. In the prior quarter, commodity prices were $63.54 per barrel, $62.17 per barrel and $68.17 per barrel, respectively, in the months of April, May and June, according to the EIA. Thus, in the first two months of the third quarter of 2025, the oil pricing environment was healthier sequentially, which is possibly backing the upper band of ExxonMobil’s projected earnings range.In its latest filings, XOM also revealed its expectations for the energy products business unit, stating that it is likely to generate earnings of $300 million to $700 million in the third quarter due to favorable industry refining margins.XOM’s Price Performance & ValuationXOM's stock has gained 2.2% over the past year compared with the industry’s growth of 8.7%. BP plc BP, another integrated energy major, has surged 26.1% over the same time frame, while Chevron Corporation CVX, in the same space, has jumped 8.8%.One-Year Price Chart Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchDespite ExxonMobil’s price being lower than BP, Chevron and the broader industry, XOM still appears relatively overvalued. The company's current trailing 12-month enterprise value/earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EV/EBITDA) ratio is 7.38, reflecting that it is trading at a premium compared to the industry average of 4.60. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchInvestment Thesis of XOMExxonMobil is an integrated energy giant with exposure to upstream, downstream, chemicals and low-carbon solutions. The energy major’s exploration and production activities span across the Permian, the most prolific resource in the United States, and offshore Guyana. With huge oil and natural gas resources in these two premium regions, ExxonMobil’s production outlook seems bright.Also, from its downstream and chemicals businesses, XOM produces premium-quality products and lower-emission fuels, thereby adapting to the evolving demand.Notably, in its latest short-term energy outlook, the EIA projects the WTI spot average price to decline to $65 per barrel in 2025 and $48.50 per barrel in 2026, from $76.60 per barrel in 2024. Rising global oil inventories will continue to hurt the commodity price, EIA added. Since XOM generates the majority of its earnings from upstream operations, soft oil prices will probably hurt its bottom line.Status of Other Big Energy Players: CVX, BPLike XOM, Chevron will also report third-quarter 2025 earnings on Oct. 31, 2025. CVX currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell).Chevron's earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters, and missed once, with the average negative surprise being 0.30%.BP, on the other hand, will report results on Nov. 4. It currently has an Earnings ESP of -0.09% and a Zacks Rank of 3.BP's earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters, and missed twice, with the average negative surprise being 2.99%.Last WordConsidering the backdrop, it might be wise for investors to wait for a more favorable entry point, as the company is currently somewhat overvalued. Those who own XOM stock may hold on to it to benefit from its long-term growth prospects.#1 Semiconductor Stock to Buy (Not NVDA)The incredible demand for data is fueling the market's next digital gold rush. As data centers continue to be built and constantly upgraded, the companies that provide the hardware for these behemoths will become the NVIDIAs of tomorrow.One under-the-radar chipmaker is uniquely positioned to take advantage of the next growth stage of this market. It specializes in semiconductor products that titans like NVIDIA don't build. It's just beginning to enter the spotlight, which is exactly where you want to be.See This Stock Now for Free >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report BP p.l.c. (BP): Free Stock Analysis Report Chevron Corporation (CVX): Free Stock Analysis Report Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks