Freeport-McMoRan to Post Q3 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. FCX is set to release third-quarter 2025 results before the opening bell on Oct. 23.The mining giant’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the last four quarters, missed once while delivering in-line results on the other occasion. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 10.4%, on average. While FCX is expected to have benefited from favorable copper prices, the adverse impacts of the mud rush incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia and higher costs are likely to have reflected in its performance.FCX stock has lost 13.8% in the past year compared with the Zacks Mining - Non Ferrous industry’s 3.8% rise.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchLet’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.What do FCX’s Revenue Estimates Indicate?The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Freeport’s third-quarter consolidated revenues is currently pegged at $6,598.2 million, which suggests a year-over-year decrease of roughly 2.8%.Factors at Play for FCX StockFreeport’s third-quarter results are expected to have reflected favorable copper prices. Copper prices remained volatile this year amid global economic and trade uncertainties. After racking up solid gains in late March, copper prices slipped to around $4.1 per pound in early April amid demand worries due to tariffs, which threatened to cause a broader slowdown globally. However, prices of the red metal moved up in late April to roughly $4.9 per pound amid a weakening U.S. dollar on heightened concerns about the prospect of a downturn in the U.S. economy. Prices again retreated to around $4.7 per pound in late May on weak global demand and increased supply. Prices recovered in June to close the second quarter above the $5 per pound level. The volatility continued in the third quarter with prices hitting an all-time high of around $5.96 per pound in July before slipping again to close the month at around $4.4 per pound. Copper prices, for the most part, remain around $4.5 per pound in August while climbing around the end of September to close the third quarter near $5 per pound on supply worries. Our estimate for third-quarter average realized copper price for FCX is $4.4 per pound, which indicates a year-over-year rise of 2.2%. FCX’s results are likely to have been unfavorably impacted by lower sales volumes due to the Grasberg mine incident. Based on its preliminary assessment of potential impacts from the incident, FCX expects its third-quarter consolidated copper sales to be around 4% lower and gold sales to be roughly 6% lower than its estimates provided in July 2025. Lower sales volumes are expected to have weighed on its top line in the to-be-reported quarter. Higher unit costs are also likely to have hurt the company’s performance in the September quarter. FCX saw a notable reduction in its average unit net cash cost per pound of copper in the second quarter to just $1.13 from $1.73 a year earlier and well below its guidance of $1.50. The decline was fueled by operational efficiencies, higher gold credits and an uptick in copper sales volumes.  However, lower expected sales volumes are likely to have led to higher costs in the third quarter. Our estimate for third-quarter consolidated average unit net cash costs per pound of copper is pegged at $1.59, indicating a rise from the prior quarter.Freeport-McMoRan Inc. Price and EPS Surprise Freeport-McMoRan Inc. price-eps-surprise | Freeport-McMoRan Inc. QuoteWhat Our Model Unveils for FCX StockOur proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for FCX this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here.Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for FCX is -1.73%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the third quarter is currently pegged at 41 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.Zacks Rank: FCX currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).Basic Materials Stocks That Warrant a LookHere are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider as our model shows they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM, scheduled to release earnings on Oct. 29, has an Earnings ESP of +16.07% and carries a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.The consensus estimate for AEM’s earnings for the third quarter is currently pegged at $1.68.Newmont Corporation NEM, slated to release earnings on Oct. 23, has an Earnings ESP of +1.32% and carries a Zacks Rank #1 at present.The consensus mark for NEM’s third-quarter earnings is currently pegged at $1.27.Kinross Gold Corporation KGC, scheduled to release earnings on Nov. 4, has an Earnings ESP of +15.87%.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KGC's earnings for the third quarter is currently pegged at 32 cents. KGC currently carries a Zacks Rank #1. Beyond Nvidia: AI's Second Wave Is HereThe AI revolution has already minted millionaires. But the stocks everyone knows about aren't likely to keep delivering the biggest profits. Little-known AI firms tackling the world's biggest problems may be more lucrative in the coming months and years.See "2nd Wave" AI stocks now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX): Free Stock Analysis Report Newmont Corporation (NEM): Free Stock Analysis Report Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC): Free Stock Analysis Report Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks