Novo Nordisk vs. Viking Therapeutics: Which GLP-1 Stock Has More Upside?

Novo Nordisk NVO and Viking Therapeutics VKTX have emerged as notable players in the obesity space.A market leader in the GLP-1 space, Novo Nordisk markets its semaglutide drugs under brand names Ozempic (pre-filled pen) and Rybelsus (oral tablet) for type II diabetes (T2D), and Wegovy (injection) for chronic weight management.On the other hand, Viking Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biotech firm. Its investigational dual GIP and GLP-1 receptor agonist, VK2735, has shown blockbuster potential in early to mid-stage studies for treating obesity.Though the comparison may seem mismatched, given the stark contrast in size and commercial maturity between the two companies, both are innovating within the same metabolic treatment space. Investors now face a key question: Should they favor the stability and proven track record of a pharmaceutical giant, or bet on a potential biotech disruptor? Let's examine the fundamentals of the two stocks to make a prudent choice.The Case for NVONovo Nordisk has one of the broadest diabetes portfolios in the industry. The company continues to be the global market leader in the GLP-1 segment, with around 54% value market share as of the end of the first quarter of 2025.Wegovy is a significant contributor to Novo Nordisk's revenues. Wegovy revenues surged 83% in first-quarter 2025 due to strong prescription growth, driving higher revenues and profits. Additionally, Ozempic sales are also contributing positively to overall revenues. NVO has been investing heavily to expand its manufacturing capacity as part of its strategic move to entrench its diabetes and obesity care market leadership for its GLP-1 products.Following the acquisition of CDMO Catalent in late 2024, Novo Nordisk has enhanced its production capacity. The deal was primarily responsible for the removal of semaglutide products from the FDA’s shortage list. This indicates that the shortage of these products is resolved, and the agency is confident that the company can meet its current and future demand.CVS Caremark, a major pharmacy benefit manager, recently announced that it would make Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy its preferred GLP-1 therapy for weight loss, effective July 1. NVO also announced partnerships with telehealth providers Hims & Hers Health to offer Wegovy at a discounted price to cash-paying patients. These are likely to give the company a commercial advantage in the obesity market.Novo Nordisk is pursuing new indications for semaglutide, including label expansions for Wegovy in additional cardiovascular conditions and for Ozempic in T2D patients with chronic kidney disease. It is investigating semaglutide’s potential in metabolic dysfunction–associated steatohepatitis. These efforts could expand the eligible patient population for semaglutide and boost sales.However, the company’s arch-rival Eli Lilly LLY remains a formidable adversary in the obesity market space, which threatens its market share. LLY markets its tirzepatide injections under the brand name Mounjaro for T2D and Zepbound for obesity.The NVO stock has also been under pressure due to disappointing data from two late-stage studies for its next-generation subcutaneous obesity candidate, CagriSema, a follow-up drug to Wegovy. In these studies, CagriSema demonstrated a lower-than-expected reduction in body weight.The Case for VKTXViking is one of the few biotech stocks that has shown immense potential in this space. VK2735 has shown blockbuster potential, having demonstrated superior weight reduction capabilities in clinical studies, both as a subcutaneous (SC) injection and an oral pill.The company started the phase II VENTURE-Oral Dosing study on the oral formulation earlier this year, with data readout expected in the second half of 2025. The company is also on track to start the late-stage study on the SC version in the second quarter of 2025.Beyond VK2735, Viking is expanding its obesity pipeline. It plans to file an investigational new drug application to begin clinical studies on its novel dual amylin and calcitonin receptor agonist (DACRA) for obesity treatment later this year.The company’s pipeline also includes promising candidates for non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and X-linked adrenoleukodystrophy (X-ALD) indications. VKTX is actively exploring partnership opportunities for these candidates, which could provide additional funding and validation.Yet, Viking's biggest challenge lies in its lack of an approved product in its portfolio and the intense competition from pharma giants that already dominate the obesity landscape.How Do Estimates Compare for NVO & VKTX?The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Novo’s 2025 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year increase of around 14% and 17%, respectively. EPS estimates for both 2025 and 2026 have been trending downward over the past 60 days.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchDevoid of a marketed product, we expect VKTX’s 2025 loss per share to widen 120%. Loss estimates for 2025 and 2026 have widened over the past 60 days.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchPrice Performance and Valuation of NVO & VKTXYear to date, shares of NVO have lost about 22%, while those of VKTX have plummeted 33%. In comparison, the industry has declined 6%, as seen in the chart below.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchFrom a valuation standpoint, Novo Nordisk seems to be more expensive than Viking Therapeutics, going by the price/book (P/B) ratio. NVO’s shares currently trade at 15.46 times trailing book value, higher than 3.58 for VKTX.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchNVO or VKTX: Which is a Better Pick?Both Novo and Viking have a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) each, which makes choosing one stock over the other difficult. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.Novo Nordisk remains a financially robust, dividend-paying blue-chip stock with a dominant commercial footprint in the diabetes and obesity markets. Its strong year-over-year revenues and profits, fueled by rising demand for Wegovy and Ozempic, suggest long-term potential.Viking has its fair share of problems, like the lack of marketed drugs and the presence of pharma giants in targeted markets. Though the company has a strong cash balance to carry out its day-to-day operations for the next few years, it is highly dependent on its pipeline drugs for growth.Hence, NVO is a safer pick at present (despite its pricey valuation) as we believe there is room for growth buoyed by solid fundamentals and recent positive uptrend in stock price movement.Zacks Names #1 Semiconductor StockIt's only 1/9,000th the size of NVIDIA which skyrocketed more than +800% since we recommended it. NVIDIA is still strong, but our new top chip stock has much more room to boom.With strong earnings growth and an expanding customer base, it's positioned to feed the rampant demand for Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Internet of Things. Global semiconductor manufacturing is projected to explode from $452 billion in 2021 to $803 billion by 2028.See This Stock Now for Free >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO): Free Stock Analysis Report Eli Lilly and Company (LLY): Free Stock Analysis Report Viking Therapeutics, Inc. (VKTX): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks