Tractor Supply Gears Up for Q3 Earnings: What's in the Offing?

Tractor Supply Company TSCO is likely to register an increase in its top and bottom lines when it reports third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 23, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $3.72 billion, indicating a 7.2% jump from the year-ago figure.The bottom line of the leading rural lifestyle retailer in the United States is expected to have risen year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share has been unchanged at 48 cents in the past 30 days, indicating a 6.7% rise from the year-ago period’s figure.Tractor Supply has a negative trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2.2%, on average. In the last reported quarter, this Brentwood, TN-based company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.3%.Key Factors Likely to Impact TSCO’s Q3 ResultsTractor Supply entered third-quarter 2025 on a solid footing, supported by sustained momentum in both sales and customer traffic. The company’s ability to deliver record quarterly performance highlights the underlying strength of its core categories and its deep connection to rural consumers. Continued growth in its consumable, usable and edible (C.U.E.) products, along with steady demand in seasonal and needs-based assortments, positions Tractor Supply well for another strong quarter ahead.The company’s focus on customer engagement and loyalty remains a key competitive advantage. Membership in the Neighbor’s Club program continues to expand, driving repeat purchases and reinforcing brand loyalty. Seasonal events and exclusive brand partnerships, such as Purina Days and the Field & Stream launch, are expected to further enhance traffic and sales as the company transitions into the fall and holiday seasons.Tractor Supply is benefiting from strategic initiatives like its Final Mile delivery expansion and ongoing store optimization efforts, which improve convenience and strengthen omnichannel capabilities. The seamless integration of digital and in-store experiences continues to support consistent demand and high fulfillment efficiency. Such benefits are likely to bolster the top-line growth in the to-be-reported quarter.Management expects favorable year-over-year comparisons, improved customer sentiment in rural markets and continued strength in core categories to drive a healthy performance in the next quarter. With disciplined cost management, a resilient supply chain and a focus on everyday value, Tractor Supply is well-positioned to sustain growth and deliver another quarter of solid results.However, cost-related headwinds remain a challenge. Tariff-related cost pressures and inflationary inputs are expected to affect margins in the back half of 2025. While disciplined expense management and productivity initiatives in its distribution network provided some offset, continued investment in strategic initiatives is likely to keep SG&A growth elevated in the near term.Our model indicates an 8% year-over-year increase in SG&A expenses for the third quarter, with the SG&A expense rate rising 20 basis points to 24.8%. Depreciation and amortization expenses are expected to increase 13.1% year over year.What the Zacks Model Unveils for TSCOOur proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Tractor Supply this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.Tractor Supply has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.Valuation & Price Performance of TSCO StockFrom a valuation perspective, Tractor Supply stock trades at a premium relative to the Retail - Miscellaneous industry. The company has a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 24X, above the industry’s average of 17.97X. However, the stock trades below the historical benchmarks, with a five-year high of 27.91X.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchTSCO shares have lost 6.1% in the past three months against the industry's 2.8% growth.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchStocks Poised to Beat Earnings EstimatesHere are a few companies that have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around:Best Buy Co., Inc. BBY currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.54% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register growth in its top and bottom lines when it reports third-quarter 2025 numbers. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $9.6 billion, which indicates a rise of 1.07% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Best Buy’s quarterly earnings per share of $1.30 implies a 3.2% increase from the year-ago quarter. The consensus mark has remained stable in the past 30 days. BBY has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 3.7%, on average.Burlington Stores BURL currently has an Earnings ESP of +4.84% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register an increase in the top and bottom lines when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2025 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly earnings per share is pegged at $1.59, which implies a 2.6% rise from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. The Burlington Stores’ top line is expected to have increased year over year.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.72 billion, which indicates a rise of 7.5% from the prior-year quarter. BURL delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 11.7%, on average.The TJX Companies, Inc. TJX currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.55% and a Zacks Rank of 2. TJX is likely to register growth in its top and bottom lines when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2025 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $14.8 billion, indicating 5.4% growth from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.The consensus estimate for TJX’s third-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.21 a share, implying a 6.2% increase from the year-earlier quarter. The consensus mark has remained stable in the past 30 days.5 Stocks Set to DoubleEach was handpicked by a Zacks expert as the favorite stock to gain +100% or more in the months ahead. 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(BURL): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks