Why Is Progressive (PGR) Up 1.5% Since Last Earnings Report?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Progressive (PGR). Shares have added about 1.5% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Progressive due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.Progressive's Q2 Earnings and Revenues Beat on Higher PremiumsThe Progressive Corporation’s second-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $4.88 beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 10.1%. The bottom line increased 84.1% year over year.Behind the HeadlinesNet premiums written were $20 billion in the quarter, up 12% from $17.9 billion a year ago. Net premiums earned grew 18% to $20.3 billion. The reported figure surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $20.1 billion. Operating revenues increased 19.5% year over year to $42.2 billion, driven by 19% higher net premiums earned, a 29.3% increase in net investment income, an 18.9% rise in fees and 28% higher service revenues. The top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 96.4%.Total expenses increased 15.1% to $35.2 billion, attributable to 12% higher losses and loss adjustment expenses, a 17% increase in policy acquisition costs, a 31.5% surge in other underwriting expenses, and a 23.6% rise in service expenses.Net realized gain on securities was $387 million versus a loss of $127 million in the year-ago quarter. Combined ratio — the percentage of premiums paid out as claims and expenses — improved 570 basis points (bps) from the prior-year quarter’s level to 86.2.June Policies in ForcePolicies in force were solid in the Personal Lines segment, increasing 16% from the year-ago month’s figure to 36.1 million. Special Lines improved 9% to 6.8 million. In the Personal Auto segment, Agency Auto increased 16% year over year to 10.4 million, while Direct Auto jumped 21% to 15.2 million.Progressive’s Commercial Auto segment policies rose 6% year over year to 1.2 million. The Property business had 3.6 million policies in force, up 8%.Financial UpdateProgressive’s book value per share was $55.62 as of June 30, 2025, up 39.5% from $39.85 as of June 30, 2024. Return on equity in June 2025 was 43.6%, up from 40.2% reported in the year-ago period. The total debt-to-total capital ratio improved 530 bps to 17.5.  How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in fresh estimates.VGM ScoresAt this time, Progressive has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock has a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for value investors.Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.OutlookEstimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise Progressive has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.Zacks Names #1 Semiconductor StockThis under-the-radar company specializes in semiconductor products that titans like NVIDIA don't build. It's uniquely positioned to take advantage of the next growth stage of this market. And it's just beginning to enter the spotlight, which is exactly where you want to be.With strong earnings growth and an expanding customer base, it's positioned to feed the rampant demand for Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Internet of Things. Global semiconductor manufacturing is projected to explode from $452 billion in 2021 to $971 billion by 2028.See This Stock Now for Free >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report The Progressive Corporation (PGR): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks