Amgen Gears Up to Report Q2 Earnings: Will the Beat Streak Continue?

We expect Amgen AMGN to beat expectations when it reports second-quarter 2025 results on Aug. 5 after market close. In the last reported quarter, the company beat earnings expectations by 17.8%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter sales and earnings is pegged at $8.86 billion and $5.25 per share, respectively.Factors to Consider for AmgenAmgen’s product sales are expected to have been driven by strong volume growth of products like Evenity, Repatha and Blincyto, among others. However, prices of most products are expected to continue to decline due to higher rebates to support expanded access.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Evenity, Repatha and Blincyto sales is pegged at $478 million, $673 million and $385 million, respectively.Our estimates for Evenity, Repatha and Blincyto sales are pegged at $461.8 million, $663.8 million and $357.2 million, respectively.Sales of RANKL antibodies (including sequences), Prolia and Xgeva are likely to have benefited from volume growth, offsetting price declines. Patents for Prolia and Xgeva expired in February 2025 in the United States, while the same will expire in some European countries in November 2025. Sales of these best-selling drugs are expected to erode significantly from the second half of 2025. Sandoz launched Wyost and Jubbonti, biosimilar versions of Prolia and Xgeva, respectively, in June, per a settlement agreement with Amgen. It remains to be seen how much the biosimilars impacted the branded drugs’ sales in the second quarter.In addition, higher volumes of newer drugs like Tezspire and Tavneos are expected to have contributed to top-line growth, driven by an increase in new patient volume.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Tezspire and Tavneos is pegged at $320.0 million and $102.0 million, respectively.Our estimates for Tezspire and Tavneos are pegged at $250.7 million and $104.6 million, respectively.However, competitive pressure hurt the volume growth of Kyprolis in the first quarter, a trend likely to have continued in the second quarter.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kyprolis sales is pegged at $370 million, while our estimate for the same is $375.4 million.New drug Imdelltra (tarlatamab) recorded high sequential growth in the three quarters since its launch in mid-2024. The growth trend is expected to have continued in the second quarter of 2025.Enbrel sales are likely to have declined due to lower prices. Otezla sales are likely to have gained from volume growth, which is expected to have offset the impact of lower prices.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Otezla is $534.0 million, while our estimate is $504.1 million.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Enbrel is $805.0 million, while our estimate is $816.3 million.In the first quarter, sales of rare disease drugs, Tepezza, Krystexxa and Uplizna, acquired from the October 2023 acquisition of Horizon, were lower than expected due to unfavorable changes to U.S. wholesaler inventory levels. Amgen does not expect similar reductions in inventory levels for the remainder of the year, which implies that the second-quarter sales of rare disease drugs might have improved.Lower revenues from oncology biosimilars (Kanjinti and Mvasi) as well as Amjevita/Amgevita, a biosimilar version of AbbVie’s Humira, due to increased competitive pressure, are expected to have hurt the top line. Sales of legacy established products are also expected to have declined.New biosimilar products are likely to have driven sales growth. Amgen launched a biosimilar version of J&J’s Stelara called Wezlana in January and Regeneron’s Eylea called Pavblu in the fourth quarter of 2024. Wezlana generated sales of $150 million in the first quarter. However, on the first-quarter conference call, Amgen had said that fluctuations in quarterly sales for Wezlana are expected in the United States, because of which the company does not expect any sales from Wezlana in the second quarter, following a large first-quarter order.Bekemv, a biosimilar version of AstraZeneca’s Soliris, was approved in the United States in May 2024 and was launched in the second quarter of 2025. Investors will look out for Pavblu and Bekemv’s sales numbers in the second-quarter results.Higher R&D costs are likely to have hurt operating margin in the second quarter.Investors will look for updates on Amgen’s important pipeline candidate, MariTide (maridebart cafraglutide), a GIPR/GLP-1 receptor for obesity, on the second-quarter conference call.AMGN’s Earnings Surprise HistoryThis large biotech’s performance has been strong, with earnings beating estimates in the trailing four quarters. The company delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.34%, on average.Amgen Inc. Price and EPS Surprise  Amgen Inc. price-eps-surprise | Amgen Inc. QuoteAmgen’s stock has risen 18.4% so far this year compared with an increase of 1.9% for the industry.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchWhat Our Model Says for AMGNOur proven model predicts an earnings beat for Amgen in the to-be-reported quarter. A stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for a likely positive surprise. This is the case here, as elaborated below.Earnings ESP: Amgen’s Earnings ESP is +1.19% as the Most Accurate Estimate of $5.31 is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.25. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.Zacks Rank: Amgen has a Zacks Rank #3 currently.Other Stocks to ConsiderHere are some other drug/biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:Pfizer PFE has an Earnings ESP of +1.43% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Pfizer’s stock has declined 3.5% so far this year. Pfizer beat earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters. PFE has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 43.49%, on average. Pfizer is scheduled to report second-quarter results on Aug. 5.CorMedix CRMD has an Earnings ESP of +14.41% and a Zacks Rank #1 at present.Shares of CRMD have surged 43.7% year to date. CorMedix beat on earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 25.82%.Denali Therapeutics DNLI has an Earnings ESP of +2.13% and a Zacks Rank #3.Denali’s stock has declined 33.2% year to date. DNLI missed earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters while beating on the remaining two occasions. On average, Denali delivered an earnings surprise of 4.42% in the last four quarters.#1 Semiconductor Stock to Buy (Not NVDA)The incredible demand for data is fueling the market's next digital gold rush. As data centers continue to be built and constantly upgraded, the companies that provide the hardware for these behemoths will become the NVIDIAs of tomorrow.One under-the-radar chipmaker is uniquely positioned to take advantage of the next growth stage of this market. It specializes in semiconductor products that titans like NVIDIA don't build. It's just beginning to enter the spotlight, which is exactly where you want to be.See This Stock Now for Free >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Pfizer Inc. (PFE): Free Stock Analysis Report Amgen Inc. (AMGN): Free Stock Analysis Report CorMedix Inc (CRMD): Free Stock Analysis Report Denali Therapeutics Inc. (DNLI): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks