Bear of the Day: Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) is a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), that is a fast casual restaurant operator that focuses on made to order Mexican inspired food using fresh ingredients.The company operates company owned restaurants that serve burritos, bowls, tacos, and salads, with a strong emphasis on digital ordering and in restaurant throughput.While Chipotle has been a standout long term growth story, the stock now faces pressure from elevated valuation, slowing traffic trends, and rising cost risks.About the CompanyChipotle operates more than 3,400 restaurants, primarily in the United States, with a smaller but growing international footprint. Unlike many restaurant peers, Chipotle owns and operates all its locations, giving it greater control over food quality, pricing, and operations. The company’s streamlined menu and efficient assembly line format support strong unit economics and industry leading margins.Growth has been driven by new restaurant openings, menu pricing, digital sales, and operational initiatives such as the Chipotlane drive thru format. However, with the stock trading at a premium multiple and margins near cycle highs, expectations remain elevated.The company has a market cap of $48B and holds Zacks Style Scores of “F” in Value and Momentum.Q3 EarningsChipotle reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.29, slightly above the $0.28 consensus, on revenue of $3.00 billion, just below expectations of $3.02 billion. Same-store sales rose only 0.3% year over year, a sharp deceleration from prior growth of 6%, while restaurant operating margins slipped to 15.9% from 16.9% last year.Digital sales made up 36.7% of food and beverage revenue, reflecting channel maturity but limited upside from this segment.Management cited persistent macro pressures, with roughly 40% of sales coming from younger guests under $100K who face wage and debt pressures, weighing on dining frequency.While the company continues to invest in marketing, menu innovation, and digital engagement, Chipotle lowered its full-year same-store sales guidance to a low-single-digit decline, signaling near-term transaction headwinds despite ongoing restaurant expansion. Operational efficiency initiatives like the HEAP rollout are underway, but benefits will accrue over time, leaving margins under pressure in the short term.Earnings EstimatesSince earnings, analyst estimates have dropped across all time frames:For the current quarter, estimates have fallen from $0.28 to $0.24, or 14% over the last 60 days.For next quarter, estimates have gone from $0.33 to $0.28, or 15%.Looking at next year we see a 14% drop over the last 90 days. That fall doesn’t reflect a positive trend for a company that has always shown impressive growth.Technical TakeThe stock is down 35% for the year, but 20% off the recent lows. Investors might be wise to take profits into the rally, so let us look at some moving averages that:21-day: $33.2550-day: $36200-day: $45The stock is currently trading at the 50-day MA, where it might find some resistance. If the 21-day can hold for the bulls, they might be able to fill the earnings gap at $40. However, if the stock falls below that $33 level, a sub $30 price is likely.In SummaryChipotle faces near-term headwinds despite its long-term brand strength. Slowing same-store sales, margin pressure, and declining analyst estimates highlight the challenges of sustaining growth in a high-cost, high-valuation environment. While operational initiatives and menu innovation may help over time, the stock’s elevated expectations and macro pressures suggest limited upside in the near term.For now, investors looking at fast casual names should focus on El Pollo Loco (LOCO). The stock is a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) that has been a leader in the space, trading near 2025 highs.Zacks Naming Top 10 Stocks for 2026Want to be tipped off early to our 10 top picks for the entirety of 2026? History suggests their performance could be sensational.From 2012 (when our Director of Research Sheraz Mian assumed responsibility for the portfolio) through November, 2025, the Zacks Top 10 Stocks gained +2,530.8%, more than QUADRUPLING the S&P 500’s +570.3%.Now Sheraz is combing through 4,400 companies to handpick the best 10 tickers to buy and hold in 2026. Don’t miss your chance to get in on these stocks when they’re released on January 5. Be First to New Top 10 Stocks >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG): Free Stock Analysis Report El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (LOCO): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks