ExxonMobil Before Q2 Earnings: Time to Hold the Stock or Reassess?

29.07.25 15:03 Uhr

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Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM is set to report second-quarter 2025 results on Aug. 1, 2025, before the opening bell.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.49 per share, implying a decline of 30.4% from the year-ago reported number.  It witnessed five upward revisions in the past 30 days. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter revenues is currently pegged at $82.8 billion, suggesting a 11% decline from the year-ago actuals. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchXOM beat the consensus estimate for earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 3.58%. This is depicted in the graph below:  Q2 Earnings Whispers for XOMOur proven model doesn’t predict an earnings beat for XOM this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here.The leading integrated energy player has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. XOM currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.XOM’s Factors to NoteExxonMobil recently disclosed in an 8-K filing that it expects earnings for the second quarter to be hurt sequentially by lower oil and natural gas prices. With exploration and production activities contributing mostly to XOM’s bottom line, a weaker commodity pricing environment in the June quarter of this year is a concern.According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”), the average spot prices for Cushing, OK, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for April, May and June were $63.54, $62.17 and $68.17 per barrel, respectively. Based on the EIA data, the pricing environment was healthier in the first quarter, with average prices of $75.74, $71.53 and $68.24 per barrel for January, February and March, respectively. The same story also applies to natural gas prices.Softer commodity prices are expected to hurt XOM’s upstream business, as the energy giant forecasts that lower oil prices will sequentially decrease its upstream earnings by $800 million to $1.2 billion. A change in gas prices will reduce its upstream profit by $300 million to $700 million. Thus, it can be assumed that ExxonMobil’s second-quarter results are going to take a hit.XOM’s Price Performance & ValuationXOM's stock has slipped 2.4% over the past year compared with the industry’s marginal growth of 0.5%. BP plc BP, another integrated energy major, has fallen 0.3% over the same time frame, while Chevron Corporation CVX, in the same space, has jumped 2.4%.One-Year Price Chart Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchDespite ExxonMobil’s price being lower than BP, Chevron and the broader industry, XOM still appears relatively overvalued. The company's current trailing 12-month enterprise value/earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EV/EBITDA) ratio is 6.90, reflecting that it is trading at a premium compared to the industry average of 4.35. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchInvestment Thesis of XOMThe acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources boosts ExxonMobil's production capabilities in the Permian Basin, one of the most profitable regions in the United States due to its exceptionally low production costs. The integrated energy major also has a strong pipeline of projects encompassing offshore Guyana assets, which are also known for low-cost structures.XOM is well known for better utilization of invested funds and has a strong balance sheet. Hence, the energy major can rely on its solid financials to sail through an unfavorable business environment. Also, investing in alternative energy, such as carbon capture and lithium battery technology, offers potential growth opportunities for ExxonMobil. However, these projects require substantial capital and carry uncertain returns in the short term. Moreover, the company’s business is highly exposed to volatile oil and natural gas prices.Status of Other Big Energy Players: CVX, BPLike XOM, Chevron will also report second-quarter 2025 earnings on Aug. 1, 2025. CVX currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.63% and a Zacks Rank of 3.Chevron's earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters, and missed the same twice, with the average negative surprise being 3.60%.BP, on the other hand, will report results on Aug. 5. BP currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 3.BP's earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters, and missed the same twice, with the average negative surprise being 2.92%.Last WordConsidering the backdrop, it might be wise for investors to wait for a more favorable entry point, as the company is currently somewhat overvalued. Those who own XOM stock may hold on to it to benefit from ExxonMobil's long-term growth prospects.Higher. Faster. Sooner. Buy These Stocks NowA small number of stocks are primed for a breakout, and you have a chance to get in before they take off.At any given time, there are only 220 Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buys. On average, this list more than doubles the S&P 500. We’ve combed through the latest Strong Buys and selected 7 compelling companies likely to jump sooner and climb higher than any other stock you could buy this month.You'll learn everything you need to know about these exciting trades in our brand-new Special Report, 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days.Download the report free now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report BP p.l.c. (BP): Free Stock Analysis Report Chevron Corporation (CVX): Free Stock Analysis Report Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks

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Analysen zu ExxonMobil Corp. (Exxon Mobil)

DatumRatingAnalyst
06.12.2023ExxonMobil OverweightJP Morgan Chase & Co.
06.12.2023ExxonMobil BuyUBS AG
07.06.2022ExxonMobil NeutralCredit Suisse Group
21.04.2022ExxonMobil OutperformRBC Capital Markets
30.03.2022ExxonMobil OverweightJP Morgan Chase & Co.
DatumRatingAnalyst
06.12.2023ExxonMobil OverweightJP Morgan Chase & Co.
06.12.2023ExxonMobil BuyUBS AG
21.04.2022ExxonMobil OutperformRBC Capital Markets
30.03.2022ExxonMobil OverweightJP Morgan Chase & Co.
10.03.2022ExxonMobil OverweightBarclays Capital
DatumRatingAnalyst
07.06.2022ExxonMobil NeutralCredit Suisse Group
01.02.2022ExxonMobil Sector PerformRBC Capital Markets
01.02.2022ExxonMobil HoldJefferies & Company Inc.
19.01.2022ExxonMobil Sector PerformRBC Capital Markets
07.01.2022ExxonMobil NeutralCredit Suisse Group
DatumRatingAnalyst
02.12.2021ExxonMobil UnderperformRBC Capital Markets
29.10.2021ExxonMobil UnderperformRBC Capital Markets
02.06.2021ExxonMobil UnderperformRBC Capital Markets
30.04.2021ExxonMobil UnderperformRBC Capital Markets
04.03.2021ExxonMobil UnderperformRBC Capital Markets

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