Here's How to Play Chevron Stock Before Q4 Earnings Release

Chevron Corporation CVX is slated to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 30, before market open.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $52.7 billion, implying only a modest increase of 0.8% from the year-ago quarter. The consensus earnings mark of $1.47 per share has been revised downward by 6.2% over the past seven days, suggesting a nearly 29% decline from the year-ago reported number.For full-year 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for CVX’s revenues is pegged at $191.8 billion, implying a decrease of 5.5% year over year. The consensus mark for 2025 earnings per share stands at $7.25, indicating a contraction of around 27.9%. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchCVX's Earnings Surprise HistoryIn the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 11.5%. Chevron’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in the other, with the average surprise being 2.8%.Chevron Corporation Price and EPS Surprise Chevron Corporation price-eps-surprise | Chevron Corporation QuoteQ4 Earnings Whispers for ChevronThe proven Zacks model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Chevron for the fourth quarter. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of a beat. But that’s not the case here.You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is -2.39%.Zacks Rank: CVX currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Factors Shaping CVX’s Upcoming Q4 ResultsEven though Chevron’s upstream production momentum remains strong, the earnings benefit in the fourth quarter could have been muted by weaker realized oil prices and higher depreciation costs. During the third quarter, Chevron delivered record upstream volumes, with worldwide production exceeding 4 million barrels of oil-equivalent per day, helped by growth in the Permian, Gulf of America and TengizChevroil (TCO). However, management clearly highlighted that upstream earnings declined year over year due to lower liquids realizations, even as volumes rose. This pricing pressure is likely to have persisted in the fourth quarter, as WTI prices averaged around $60 per barrel versus roughly $70 a year earlier, and the broader oil market remains oversupplied heading into early 2026.At the same time, Chevron is absorbing higher depreciation, depletion and amortization tied to increased production from capital-intensive assets such as TCO and newly integrated Hess properties. These costs rise mechanically as volumes grow and can offset the earnings lift from higher output. As a result, even with operational execution improving, fourth-quarter upstream profitability may have remained under pressure. Consequently, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter upstream earnings is pegged at $2.9 billion, indicating a decline of 33% year over year.Chevron’s ongoing capital commitments might have been another potential drag on fourth-quarter earnings. While the company emphasizes capital discipline, total spending remains substantial, with organic capital expenditures of $4.4 billion in the third quarter and full-year 2025 capex guidance of $17–$17.5 billion, including Hess. Importantly, several high-profile initiatives — such as upstream integration of Hess assets, continued investment in TCO and potential expansion activities in Venezuela — require significant upfront capital before meaningful cash returns are realized.On a somewhat positive note, Chevron’s downstream business is positioned to have provided a useful earnings cushion in the fourth quarter, supported by better refining economics and structural cost improvements. In third-quarter 2025, adjusted downstream earnings increased both sequentially and year over year, driven by higher refining volumes, improved refining margins and favorable operating expense timing. In addition, Chevron has already captured approximately $1.5 billion in annual run-rate savings from its new operating model, with management explicitly stating that further benefits are expected in the fourth quarter. These savings help offset volatility in refining markets and improve earnings resilience. When combined with Chevron’s strong West Coast and Gulf Coast refining footprint, this positions the downstream segment to positively contribute to fourth-quarter results. Consequently, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for CVX’s fourth-quarter downstream income is pegged at $760 million, implying a significant turnaround from a loss of $248 million in the year-ago period.Updates From Chevron’s Global Peers: ExxonMobil and ShellRival ExxonMobil XOM also highlighted a similar trend, noting that the decline in liquids prices may have a negative impact of nearly $800 million to $1.2 billion on its upstream earnings compared to the third quarter. ExxonMobil has also mentioned that changes in gas prices, which include the impact of shifts in natural gas realizations, may result in a swing ranging from a negative $300 million to a positive $100 million on a sequential basis. For Energy Products, the company estimates that changes in industry margins are expected to have a positive impact of nearly $300-$700 million, whereas for Specialty Products, ExxonMobil expects to add up to $200 million in incremental earnings compared with the third quarter.Another of Chevron’s ‘Big Oil’ peers, Shell SHEL, projected an increase in oil and gas production during the fourth quarter of 2025, even as it flagged a significant downturn in the oil trading performance. This mixed forecast follows a turbulent period for Shell, with fluctuating crude prices and shifting market dynamics adversely impacting key aspects of its business operations. Another notable development in Shell’s fourth-quarter performance is the completion of the Canadian oil sands swap. This strategic transaction, which involved a shift in assets between Shell and other industry players, will result in a reduction in oil sands production in the quarter.CVX Price Performance & Stock ValuationShares of Chevron have gone up 7.2% in the past six-month period compared with the broader Zacks Energy sector’s growth of more than 10%. Shares of XOM have gained 21%, while Shell stock has inched up 1.4%.6-Month Performance Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchFrom a valuation perspective — in terms of forward price-to-earnings ratio — Chevron is trading at a premium compared to the industry average. The stock is also trading above its five-year mean of 11.86.  Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchHow Should You Play CVX Pre-Q4 Earnings?Chevron entered the fourth quarter with solid operations but limited near-term upside. Upstream production continues to improve, supported by the Permian, Gulf of America and the Hess assets. Yet, weaker oil prices and higher depreciation costs are weighing on earnings despite higher volumes. Downstream performance has been a relative bright spot, helped by better refining margins, higher throughput and cost savings that should carry into the fourth quarter. Still, elevated capital spending for integration, maintenance and future growth projects is putting pressure on free cash flow in a softer pricing environment. With oil markets oversupplied, valuation still rich versus peers and earnings momentum constrained in the near term, the risk-reward looks unfavorable. Hence, investors should avoid the stock for now.Just Released: Zacks Top 10 Stocks for 2026Hurry – you can still get in early on our 10 top tickers for 2026. Handpicked by Zacks Director of Research Sheraz Mian, this portfolio has been stunningly and consistently successful.From inception in 2012 through November, 2025, the Zacks Top 10 Stocks gained +2,530.8%, more than QUADRUPLING the S&P 500’s +570.3%.Sheraz has combed through 4,400 companies covered by the Zacks Rank and handpicked the best 10 to buy and hold in 2026. You can still be among the first to see these just-released stocks with enormous potential.See New Top 10 Stocks >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Chevron Corporation (CVX): Free Stock Analysis Report Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM): Free Stock Analysis Report Shell PLC Unsponsored ADR (SHEL): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks