Is Mastercard Stock a Smart Bet Ahead of Q4 Earnings? Key Estimates

Payments giant Mastercard Incorporated MA is set to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 29, 2026, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at $4.20 per shareon revenues of $8.74 billion. The fourth-quarter earnings estimate witnessed one upward revision and two downward movements over the past month. Yet, the bottom-line projection indicates an increase of 10% from the year-ago reported number. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests year-over-year growth of 16.7%. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchFor full-year 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mastercard’s revenues is pegged at $32.73 billion, implying a rise of 16.2% year over year. Also, the consensus mark for 2025 earnings per share is pegged at $16.44, implying a jump of 12.6% on a year-over-year basis.Mastercard has a robust history of surpassing earnings estimates, beating the consensus estimate in each of the last four quarters, with the average surprise being 3.1%. This is depicted in the figure below.Mastercard Incorporated Price and EPS Surprise Mastercard Incorporated price-eps-surprise | Mastercard Incorporated QuoteQ4 Earnings Whispers for MastercardOur proven model predicts a likely earnings beat for the company this time around as well. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is precisely the case here.MA has an Earnings ESP of +0.62% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.What’s Shaping Mastercard’s Q4 Results?Both the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for the company’s total Gross Dollar Volume (GDV) for all MA-branded programs suggest an around 11% rise from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. We expect GDV from domestic operations to increase by 8% year over year and 17.1% from European operations.Switched transactions are expected to have experienced an upsurge, driven by resilient consumer spending and increased contactless acceptance initiatives pursued by the company. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its switched transactions indicates a 9.4% rise from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. Other companies like Visa Inc. V and American Express Company AXP are also expected to witness strong growth in transactions (9.5% and 8.3%, respectively) in the to-be-reported quarter.Increasing cross-border travel is expected to have had a positive impact on Mastercard's cross-border volumes. As such, the consensus estimate for cross-border assessments suggests an increase of 18.1% compared with the previous year. Further, the consensus mark implies domestic assessments and transaction processing assessments to witness a 11.9% and 14.3% year-over-year increase, respectively.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Value-added Services and Solutions net revenues indicates 23.1% year-over-year growth, while our model estimate suggests nearly 20% increase in the fourth quarter. Growing demand for its consulting and marketing services and loyalty solutions is likely to have driven this metric.The above-mentioned factors are expected to have positioned the company not only for year-over-year growth but also for a likely earnings beat. The positives are expected to have been partially offset by rising expenses, rebates and incentives.Mastercard’s adjusted operating costs are likely to have increased in the fourth quarter due to higher G&A costs and Advertising & Marketing expenses. We expect total adjusted operating expenses to rise nearly 19% from the prior-year quarter’s actuals. Furthermore, our estimate for payments network rebates and incentives suggests a 21.6% year-over-year increase.Mastercard’s Price Performance & ValuationOver the past three months, Mastercard declined 6.8%, while Visa fell 5.3%, but American Express gained 0.6%. All of these stocks outperformed the industry’s 8.8% decline. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Index grew 1.4%.Price Performance – MA, V, AXP, Industry & S&P 500 Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchNow, let’s look at the value Mastercard offers investors at current levels.The company’s valuation looks stretched compared with the industry average, despite the declines. Currently, Mastercardis trading at 27.35X forward 12-month earnings, above the industry’s 19.43X. In comparison, both Visa and American Express offer better value at the moment, trading at a forward P/E of 24.59X and 21.56X. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchHow Should You Play Mastercard Ahead of Q4 Earnings?Mastercard remains a high-quality payments company with durable long-term tailwinds, but current conditions argue for patience rather than immediate action. While investor interest is broadening beyond AI-heavy trades toward cash-generative business models, Mastercard’s recent pullback has not fully reset valuation expectations. The stock still trades at a clear premium to the payments industry and to peers like Visa and American Express, limiting near-term upside.Operationally, fundamentals remain solid. Transaction volumes continue to grow at a healthy pace, cross-border activity is rebounding alongside travel, and value-added services are expanding rapidly, strengthening recurring, high-margin revenues. These factors reinforce Mastercard’s long-term growth story and its appeal as a core holding over a full cycle.However, near-term risks are becoming more visible. Regulatory and legal pressures in the U.K. and U.S. create headline risk, while competition from nimble fintechs and alternative payment rails continues to intensify. At the same time, broader market rotation and macro uncertainty could drive further multiple compression across premium financial franchises.Taken together, Mastercard’s quality is not in doubt, but with fourth-quarter earnings around the corner, investors may be wise to hold for now and wait for a more attractive entry point.Just Released: Zacks Top 10 Stocks for 2026Hurry – you can still get in early on our 10 top tickers for 2026. Handpicked by Zacks Director of Research Sheraz Mian, this portfolio has been stunningly and consistently successful.From inception in 2012 through November, 2025, the Zacks Top 10 Stocks gained +2,530.8%, more than QUADRUPLING the S&P 500’s +570.3%.Sheraz has combed through 4,400 companies covered by the Zacks Rank and handpicked the best 10 to buy and hold in 2026. You can still be among the first to see these just-released stocks with enormous potential.See New Top 10 Stocks >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Mastercard Incorporated (MA): Free Stock Analysis Report Visa Inc. (V): Free Stock Analysis Report American Express Company (AXP): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks