Progressive (PGR) Up 0.6% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Progressive (PGR). Shares have added about 0.6% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Progressive due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for The Progressive Corporation before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.PGR Q3 Earnings & Revenues Miss Estimates, Rise Y/Y on Higher PremiumsThe Progressive Corporation’s third-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $4.05 missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 20.3%. Operating revenues of $22.2 billion missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.6%.  However, the bottom line increased 13.1% year over year while the top line increased 12.7%.Net premiums written were $21.3 billion in the quarter, up 10% from $19.5 billion a year ago. Net premiums earned grew 14% to $20.8 billion. The reported figure missed  the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $21.1 billion. Net realized gain on securities was $288 million, up 2% year over year.Combined ratio — the percentage of premiums paid out as claims and expenses — deteriorated 50 basis points (bps) from the prior-year quarter’s level to 89.5. The reported figure exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 87.September Policies in ForcePolicies in force were solid in the Personal Lines segment, increasing 13% from the year-ago month’s figure to 36.9 million. The figure came in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate.  Special Lines improved 8% to 7 million, matching the Zacks Consensus Estimate.  In the Personal Auto segment, Agency Auto increased 13% year over year to 10.6 million, while Direct Auto jumped 17% to 15.6 million.Progressive’s Commercial Auto segment policies rose 6% year over year to 1.2 million. The Property business had 3.7 million policies in force, up 6%.Financial UpdateProgressive’s book value per share was $60.45 as of Sept. 30, 2025, up 30.4% from $46.36 as of Sept. 30, 2024.Return on equity in September 2025  was 37.1%, down from 40.2% reported in the year-ago period. The total debt-to-total capital ratio improved 410 bps to 16.3.  How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?It turns out, estimates revision flatlined during the past month.The consensus estimate has shifted 6.5% due to these changes.VGM ScoresAt this time, Progressive has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock has a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.Outlook Progressive has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.Zacks' Research Chief Names "Stock Most Likely to Double"Our team of experts has just released the 5 stocks with the greatest probability of gaining +100% or more in the coming months. Of those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian highlights the one stock set to climb highest.This top pick is a little-known satellite-based communications firm. Space is projected to become a trillion dollar industry, and this company's customer base is growing fast. Analysts have forecasted a major revenue breakout in 2025. Of course, all our elite picks aren't winners but this one could far surpass earlier Zacks' Stocks Set to Double like Hims & Hers Health, which shot up +209%.Free: See Our Top Stock And 4 Runners UpWant the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report The Progressive Corporation (PGR): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks