Visa Stock Drops Under 200-Day SMA: Buy, Hold or Cut the Card?

Visa Inc. V shares have been losing steam in recent months, slipping below key technical thresholds and signaling a bearish turn in sentiment. On Sept. 10, 2025, the stock closed at $338.12, moving under its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of $339.45. This followed last Friday’s drop beneath the 50-day SMA, a level it has yet to reclaim.The SMA is a core tool in technical analysis, helping investors gauge longer-term price trends by filtering out short-term volatility. When a stock falls below both the 50 and 200-day SMAs in quick succession, it often points to fading buying interest and will likely push traders to trim positions.Visa Slips Under 50 & 200-Day SMAs Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchVisa’s Lagging Price PerformanceOver the past three months, Visa’s shares have lost 9%, underperforming the industry’s 5.2% decline and badly trailing the S&P 500’s 9% advance. By comparison, Mastercard Incorporated MA is down just 1.7%, while American Express Company AXP has gained 8.5%.Price Performance Comparison – V, MA, AXP, Industry & S&P 500 Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchMounting Pressures on VisaEven after posting strong fiscal third-quarter results, Visa’s stock remains under pressure. Investor concerns center on the threat of retailer-driven stablecoin payment systems from heavyweights like Walmart and Amazon, alongside legislative efforts favoring blockchain-based payments. These developments could undermine Visa’s fee-based revenue model and competitive edge.Regulatory risks add another layer of uncertainty, including the U.S. Department of Justice’s antitrust lawsuit and potential legislative changes such as the Credit Card Competition Act. Overseas, Visa and Mastercard are also facing legal battles in the U.K. over merchant fees. The London Competition Appeal Tribunal ruled that their multilateral interchange fees violate European competition law.Visa’s premium valuation can temper near-term upside, with the stock trading at 26.49X forward price/earnings versus the industry average of 21.74X. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchBy contrast, Mastercard sits higher at 31.88X, while American Express trades lower at 19.29X.Visa’s Long-Term Tailwinds Still in PlayVisa’s moat remains supported by powerful network effects, where each new user and merchant deepens its scale advantage. The company’s strong cash flows continue to fund infrastructure, marketing, and innovation, extending its leadership. Its push into emerging channels like buy now, pay later (BNPL), embedded finance and tokenized payments further strengthens its growth prospects.International expansion is another cornerstone. With digital payment adoption accelerating worldwide, Visa’s $630.5 billion market cap and vast global footprint leave it well-positioned for the long haul. In the fiscal third quarter, value-added services like fraud prevention, analytics and advisory generated $2.8 billion in revenues, rising 26% year over year in constant dollars. Visa is also building capabilities in digital wallets and crypto payments, advancing stablecoin settlement trials for cross-border transactions.Recent steps include adding support for USD-backed stablecoins Global Dollar (USDG) and PayPal USD (PYUSD) via a partnership with Paxos, integrating the euro-backed stablecoin EURC, and expanding blockchain support to Stellar and Avalanche alongside existing Ethereum and Solana. These moves enable Visa to process settlements across four stablecoins and four blockchains. Visa is embracing change as a path to growth, rather than pushing against it.Shareholders also benefit from healthy capital returns. In the last quarter, Visa returned $6 billion to investors, $4.8 billion in buybacks and $1.2 billion in dividends. As of June 30, 2025, $29.8 billion remained authorized for repurchases. The stock’s dividend yield of 0.7% tops the industry average of 0.62%, backed by a track record of consistent hikes.Expected rate cuts from the Federal Reserve will likely provide a boost to Visa’s performance by fueling transaction growth.Favorable Estimates for VisaAnalyst sentiment remained stable over the past month. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Visa’s fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2026 EPS implies a 13.7% and 12.4% uptick, respectively, on a year-over-year basis. Similarly, the consensus mark for fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2026 revenues suggests a 10.9% and 10.8% increase, respectively.The company beat earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 3.9%.Visa Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise Visa Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Visa Inc. QuoteVisa’s Price Target Signals UpsideDespite recent weakness, Wall Street remains constructive. Visa trades below its average analyst target of $397, implying a potential 15.4% gain from current levels. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchBottom LineVisa’s slip below both its 50 and 200-day SMAs has tilted near-term sentiment bearish, with competitive and regulatory headwinds weighing on investor confidence. Yet, the company’s global scale, powerful network effects, and continued innovation in digital payments and stablecoin settlements provide a strong foundation for long-term growth.Valuation remains elevated versus peers, which could limit upside in the near term, but steady earnings momentum and robust shareholder returns keep the story intact. With risks balanced against growth drivers, Visa has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), suggesting investors may want to stay patient until stronger entry signals emerge.You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 DaysJust released: Experts distill 7 elite stocks from the current list of 220 Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buys. They deem these tickers "Most Likely for Early Price Pops."Since 1988, the full list has beaten the market more than 2X over with an average gain of +23.5% per year. So be sure to give these hand picked 7 your immediate attention. See them now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Mastercard Incorporated (MA): Free Stock Analysis Report Visa Inc. (V): Free Stock Analysis Report American Express Company (AXP): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks