Allegiant Travel (ALGT) Up 32% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Allegiant Travel (ALGT). Shares have added about 32% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Allegiant Travel due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for Allegiant Travel Company before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.Allegiant Beats on Earnings in Q2Allegiant Travel reported second-quarter 2025 earnings of $1.23 per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 83 cents per share. However, the bottom line declined 30.5% from the year-ago quarter.Operating revenues of $689.4 million missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $698.4 million but improved 3.5% on a year-over-year basis.Passenger revenues, which accounted for the bulk (89.6%) of the top line, grew 3.9% on a year-over-year basis. Air traffic (measured in revenue passenger miles) for scheduled services grew 12% year over year in the quarter under review. Capacity (measured in available seat miles or ASMs) grew 16.1% from the year-ago number. The load factor (percentage of seats filled by passengers) decreased to 81.9% from 84.7% in the reported quarter, as traffic did not outperform capacity.Operating costs per available seat miles, excluding fuel, fell 2.5% year over year to 8.29 cents. The average fuel cost per gallon (scheduled) decreased 22.2% year over year to $2.49. Total scheduled service passenger revenue per available seat miles fell to 13.01 cents from 13.16 cents a year ago.Airline operating costs per available seat miles, excluding fuel, fell 6.7% year over year to 7.68 cents. The average fuel cost per gallon (scheduled) decreased 14.1% year over year to $2.43. Total scheduled service passenger revenue per available seat miles fell to 11.57 cents from 13.03 cents a year ago.ALGT’s LiquidityAs of June 30, 2025, Allegiant’s total unrestricted cash and investments were $852.7 million compared with $906.3 million at the prior-quarter end. Long-term debt and finance lease obligations (net of current maturities and related costs) totaled $1.77 billion compared with $1.74 billion at the prior-quarter end.Allegiant’s Guidance for Q3 & 2025For the third quarter of 2025, ASM (for scheduled service) is expected to increase 10% on a year-over-year basis. Total system ASM is projected to gain 9% on a year-over-year basis.Adjusted loss per share (airline) is anticipated in the $1.25 to $2.25 range.  Third-quarter adjusted consolidated loss per share is expected to lie between $1.75 and $2.75. The fuel cost per gallon is suggested to be $2.55.For 2025, ASM (for scheduled service) is expected to increase 13% on a year-over-year basis. Total system ASM is projected to rise 12% on a year-over-year basis.Adjusted EPS (airline) is anticipated to be above $3.25. Adjusted consolidated earnings per share for 2025 are expected to be above $2.25.Interest expenses are forecasted to be in the range of $140-$150 million. The fuel cost per gallon is suggested to be $2.53.Under airline capex, aircraft-related capital expenditures are expected to be in the $260-$280 million band. Capitalized deferred heavy maintenance is envisioned to be between $50 million and $70 million. Other airline capital expenditures are expected to be between $95 and $115 million.The company aims to have a fleet size of 122 at the end of the third quarter of 2025.How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.The consensus estimate has shifted -26.49% due to these changes.VGM ScoresAt this time, Allegiant Travel has a average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.OutlookEstimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Interestingly, Allegiant Travel has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.Performance of an Industry PlayerAllegiant Travel is part of the Zacks Transportation - Airline industry. Over the past month, SkyWest (SKYW), a stock from the same industry, has gained 10.1%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended June 2025 more than a month ago.SkyWest reported revenues of $1.04 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +19.4%. EPS of $2.91 for the same period compares with $1.82 a year ago.SkyWest is expected to post earnings of $2.56 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +18.5%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +5.6%.SkyWest has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of A.Higher. Faster. Sooner. 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(SKYW): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks