Is Trending Stock UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) a Buy Now?

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is one of the stocks most watched by Zacks.com visitors lately. So, it might be a good idea to review some of the factors that might affect the near-term performance of the stock.Shares of this largest U.S. health insurer have returned +13.9% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +2.5% change. The Zacks Medical - HMOs industry, to which UnitedHealth belongs, has gained 8.2% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.Revisions to Earnings EstimatesHere at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.We essentially look at how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest business trends. And if earnings estimates go up for a company, the fair value for its stock goes up. A higher fair value than the current market price drives investors' interest in buying the stock, leading to its price moving higher. This is why empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.For the current quarter, UnitedHealth is expected to post earnings of $2.87 per share, indicating a change of -59.9% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -6.6% over the last 30 days.The consensus earnings estimate of $16.21 for the current fiscal year indicates a year-over-year change of -41.4%. This estimate has changed -1.3% over the last 30 days.For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $17.51 indicates a change of +8.1% from what UnitedHealth is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed -3.1%.With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) for UnitedHealth.The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:12 Month EPSProjected Revenue GrowthEven though a company's earnings growth is arguably the best indicator of its financial health, nothing much happens if it cannot raise its revenues. It's almost impossible for a company to grow its earnings without growing its revenue for long periods. Therefore, knowing a company's potential revenue growth is crucial.For UnitedHealth, the consensus sales estimate for the current quarter of $113.54 billion indicates a year-over-year change of +12.6%. For the current and next fiscal years, $448.87 billion and $465.87 billion estimates indicate +12.1% and +3.8% changes, respectively.Last Reported Results and Surprise HistoryUnitedHealth reported revenues of $111.62 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +12.9%. EPS of $4.08 for the same period compares with $6.8 a year ago.Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $111.55 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +0.06%. The EPS surprise was -15.7%.Over the last four quarters, UnitedHealth surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times. The company topped consensus revenue estimates two times over this period.ValuationWithout considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.Comparing the current value of a company's valuation multiples, such as its price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), to its own historical values helps ascertain whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, whereas comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of how reasonable its stock price is.As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.UnitedHealth is graded C on this front, indicating that it is trading at par with its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.ConclusionThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about UnitedHealth. However, its Zacks Rank #5 does suggest that it may underperform the broader market in the near term.Beyond Nvidia: AI's Second Wave Is HereThe AI revolution has already minted millionaires. But the stocks everyone knows about aren't likely to keep delivering the biggest profits. Little-known AI firms tackling the world's biggest problems may be more lucrative in the coming months and years.See "2nd Wave" AI stocks now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks