Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) Is a Trending Stock: Facts to Know Before Betting on It

Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) has recently been on Zacks.com's list of the most searched stocks. Therefore, you might want to consider some of the key factors that could influence the stock's performance in the near future.Shares of this cruise operator have returned +1.6% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.9% change. The Zacks Leisure and Recreation Services industry, to which Norwegian Cruise Line belongs, has gained 2% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.Revisions to Earnings EstimatesHere at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.We essentially look at how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest business trends. And if earnings estimates go up for a company, the fair value for its stock goes up. A higher fair value than the current market price drives investors' interest in buying the stock, leading to its price moving higher. This is why empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.Norwegian Cruise Line is expected to post earnings of $0.28 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +7.7%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged.For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $2.09 points to a change of +14.8% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has remained unchanged.For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $2.65 indicates a change of +27.2% from what Norwegian Cruise Line is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has remained unchanged.Having a strong externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, offers a more conclusive picture of a stock's price direction in the near term, since it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. Due to the size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, Norwegian Cruise Line is rated Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:12 Month EPSProjected Revenue GrowthWhile earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company's financial health, nothing happens as such if a business isn't able to grow its revenues. After all, it's nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings for an extended period without increasing its revenues. So, it's important to know a company's potential revenue growth.For Norwegian Cruise Line, the consensus sales estimate for the current quarter of $2.34 billion indicates a year-over-year change of +11%. For the current and next fiscal years, $9.93 billion and $10.95 billion estimates indicate +4.8% and +10.2% changes, respectively.Last Reported Results and Surprise HistoryNorwegian Cruise Line reported revenues of $2.94 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +4.7%. EPS of $1.2 for the same period compares with $0.99 a year ago.Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.02 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of -2.6%. The EPS surprise was +3.45%.Over the last four quarters, Norwegian Cruise Line surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times. The company topped consensus revenue estimates just once over this period.ValuationWithout considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.Comparing the current value of a company's valuation multiples, such as its price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), to its own historical values helps ascertain whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, whereas comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of how reasonable its stock price is.As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.Norwegian Cruise Line is graded A on this front, indicating that it is trading at a discount to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.Bottom LineThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Norwegian Cruise Line. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.Free Report: Profiting from the 2nd Wave of AI ExplosionThe next phase of the AI explosion is poised to create significant wealth for investors, especially those who get in early. It will add literally trillion of dollars to the economy and revolutionize nearly every part of our lives.Investors who bought shares like Nvidia at the right time have had a shot at huge gains.But the rocket ride in the "first wave" of AI stocks may soon come to an end. The sharp upward trajectory of these stocks will begin to level off, leaving exponential growth to a new wave of cutting-edge companies.Zacks' AI Boom 2.0: The Second Wave report reveals 4 under-the-radar companies that may soon be shining stars of AI’s next leap forward.Access AI Boom 2.0 now, absolutely free >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks