Should Investors Bet on Cameco Stock Post the Q3 Earnings Miss?

Cameco CCJ reported third-quarter 2025 results on Tuesday, with revenues declining 14.7% year over year while adjusted earnings per share rose 17% year over year to CAD 0.07 (five cents). However, earnings fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a margin of 75%.Let us delve deeper into the company’s third-quarter results and long-term prospects before assessing whether to buy, hold or sell the stock.Cameco Witnesses Lower Revenues in Both SegmentsCameco reported a 2% increase in uranium production to 4.4 million pounds. CCJ’s share of production from Cigar Lake was 2.2 million pounds (up 47% year over year) and from McArthur River/Key Lake was 2.2 million pounds (down 21%). The company sold 6.1 million pounds of uranium, 16% lower than in the third quarter of 2024. This decline, somewhat offset by 4% uptick in the Canadian dollar average realized price due to the impact of fixed-price contracts on the portfolio, led to a 12.8% drop in uranium revenues to CAD 523 million ($379 million).In Fuel Services, production was down 3% year over year to 3.1 million kgUs while sales volume plunged 46% to 1.9 million kgUs. The segment witnessed a 24% drop in revenues to CAD 91 million (CAD 66 million), as gains from a 42% increase in average realized prices were offset by lower volumes. Overall, Cameco’s total revenues were down 14.7% year over year to CAD 615 million ($446 million) due to the volume declines in both segments.  Total cost of sales fell 20% to around CAD 385 million ($279 million). In the uranium segment, costs were down 19% due to lower average unit cost of sales and volumes.  In fuel services, the cost of products and services sold declined 24% due to lower sales volume, offsetting the 40% increase in average unit cost of sales.The company’s share of Westinghouse’s adjusted EBITDA was $124 million in the third quarter compared with $122 million in the third quarter of 2024. In October 2025, Westinghouse received the cash associated with its participation in the construction project for two nuclear reactors at the Dukovany power plant in the Czech Republic, led by Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power. Cameco received $171.5 million, representing its 49% share. Cameco’s adjusted earnings gained 17% year over year to five cents per share in the third quarter. At the end of the third quarter, CCJ had C$779 million ($565 million) in cash and cash equivalents, and C$1 billion ($725 million) in long-term debt and a $1 billion ($725 million) undrawn revolving credit facility.Cameco Maintains 2025 Outlook Despite McArthur DelaysIn August, Cameco revised its 2025 production guidance for the McArthur River mine due to development delays. CCJ expects 9.8–10.5 million pounds of uranium from the mine while maintaining 9.8 million pounds from Cigar Lake. This suggests a share of combined production at 19.6-20.3 million pounds for 2025. Backed by the momentum at Cigar Lake, CCJ stated that it could outperform its target by 1 million pounds (100% basis) and add to its output by 0.54 million pounds. Cameco expects its share of adjusted EBITDA from Westinghouse to be $525-$580 million for 2025.Cameco revised its full-year target of uranium deliveries to 32–34 million pounds, from its prior stated 31-34 million pounds. In 2024, CCJ delivered 33.6 million pounds of uranium. The company has delivered 21.8 million pounds of uranium so far in 2025. For 2025, uranium revenues are projected at CAD 2.8–3.0 billion, based on an average realized price at approximately $87.00 per pound. In the fuel services segment, CCJ plans to produce between 13 million and 14 million kgU in 2025. Fuel services revenues are projected at $500-$550 million for 2025. This takes the total revenue guidance for 2025 to CAD 3.3-3.550 billion. The company had reported CAD 3.136 billion in revenues in 2024.How Did Cameco’s Peers Fare in Q3?Energy Fuels’ UUUU total revenues came in at $17.7 million in the third quarter, soaring 337.6% year over year, driven by higher uranium sales, which offset the decline in prices. During the quarter, UUUU sold 240,000 pounds of uranium compared with 50,000 in the third quarter of 2024.Despite the revenue surge, elevated expenses resulted in a loss of seven cents per share for UUUU, which came in line with last year’s quarter but beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of eight cents per share. Ur-Energy Inc. URG reported a loss of seven cents per share in the third quarter, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of three cents. The loss also came in wider than the year-ago quarter’s loss of two cents per share.Ur-Energy sold 110,000 pounds of uranium during the quarter (sourced from previously purchased inventories) at an average price of $57.48 per pound. Ur Energy posted revenues of $6.32 million for the quarter, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7 million. This compares with year-ago revenues of $6.4 million.CCJ Sees Downward Earnings Revision ActivityThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cameco’s earnings for both fiscal 2025 and 2026 has moved down over the past 60 days, as shown in the chart below.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchThe consensus estimate for Cameco’s earnings for fiscal 2025 indicates year-over-year growth of 118.4%. The same for 2026 implies growth of 30.5%.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchCameco’s Price PerformanceIn the past three months, Cameco shares have gained 17.3% compared with the industry’s 1.6% growth. Meanwhile, the broader Zacks Basic Materials sector has moved up 0.3%, while the S&P 500 has climbed 8%. However, Cameco has lagged its peer Energy Fuels, which gained 58.3% in the past three months. Cameco has, however, fared better than Ur-Energy’s rise of 4.3%.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchCameco’s Valuation Looks StretchedCCJ stock is trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 15.87 compared with the industry’s 1.45. CCJ’s Value Score of F suggests that the stock is not so cheap and a stretched valuation at this moment.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchEnergy Fuels is trading higher at 29.11, while Ur Energy is a cheaper option, trading way lower, at 5.3.CCJ to Ride on Global Focus on Nuclear EnergyCCJ continues to invest in increasing production and capitalizing on market opportunities. Work is underway to extend the mine life at Cigar Lake to 2036. Cameco is also increasing production at McArthur River and Key Lake from 18 million pounds to its licensed annual capacity of 25 million pounds (100% basis).Geopolitical events, energy security concerns and the global focus on the climate crisis amid rising low-carbon energy demand have created tailwinds for the nuclear power industry. Given Cameco’s low-cost and high-grade assets and diversified portfolio spanning the nuclear fuel cycle, it is well-positioned in the long run to capitalize on these trends.Should You Buy Cameco Stock Now?Supported by a strong balance sheet, the company is making investments to boost its capacity to capitalize on the expected surge in uranium demand. However, it is better to avoid the stock now, considering the premium valuation and the downward estimate revisions. The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.Zacks' Research Chief Picks Stock Most Likely to "At Least Double"Our experts have revealed their Top 5 recommendations with money-doubling potential – and Director of Research Sheraz Mian believes one is superior to the others. Of course, all our picks aren’t winners but this one could far surpass earlier recommendations like Hims & Hers Health, which shot up +209%.See Our Top Stock to Double (Plus 4 Runners Up) >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Cameco Corporation (CCJ): Free Stock Analysis Report Ur Energy Inc (URG): Free Stock Analysis Report Energy Fuels Inc (UUUU): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks