Starbucks to Post Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards for the Stock?

Starbucks Corporation SBUX is scheduled to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results on Oct. 29, 2025, after the closing bell. SBUX’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and missed on two occasions, with an average surprise being 8.7%.Trend in Estimate Revision of SBUXThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at 56 cents, indicating a fall of 30% from 80 cents reported in the year-ago quarter.Starbucks Corporation Price and EPS Surprise Starbucks Corporation price-eps-surprise | Starbucks Corporation QuoteFor revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at nearly $9.35 billion. The metric suggests a rise of 3% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.Let’s take a look at how things have shaped up in the quarter.Factors Likely to Shape Starbucks’ Quarterly ResultsDuring the fiscal fourth quarter, Starbucks’ performance is expected to have reflected steady progress in its turnaround strategy under the “Back to Starbucks” plan. The company is likely to have benefited from the nationwide rollout of its Green Apron Service model, which aims to deliver consistent service standards and enhance operational efficiency across all U.S. company-operated stores. This initiative, combined with a renewed focus on customer connection and partner engagement, is anticipated to have supported improved speed of service, order accuracy and guest satisfaction during the quarter.Seasonal beverage offerings, including the return of the Pumpkin Spice Latte and new protein cold foam beverages, are likely to have bolstered traffic and ticket growth. Additionally, targeted coffeehouse uplift investments and reimagined store layouts may have improved the in-store experience, driving stronger engagement among both Starbucks Rewards members and non-members. Our model predicts fiscal fourth-quarter same-store sales to rise 0.2% year over year.On the international front, the company is expected to have maintained solid momentum, led by growth in China, the U.K. and Mexico, supported by beverage innovation, expanded delivery channels and store development. Our model predicts fiscal fourth-quarter international revenues to rise 7.4% year over year to $2 billion.Despite these strengths, Starbucks’ bottom line is likely to have faced continued pressure from elevated labor expenses, added operating hours tied to Green Apron Service implementation and ongoing inflationary costs. Our model predicts fiscal fourth-quarter total operating expenses to rise 8% year over year to $5.47 billion.Softer U.S. traffic trends, particularly in afternoon dayparts, along with a cautious consumer spending environment, are likely to have negatively impacted the company's performance in the fiscal fourth quarter.What Our Model Says About SBUX StockOur proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Starbucks this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that's not the case here.SBUX's Earnings ESP: Starbucks has an Earnings ESP of -8.45%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.SBUX's Zacks Rank: The company has a Zacks Rank #3.Stocks With the Favorable CombinationHere are some stocks worth considering from the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.Dutch Bros Inc. BROS currently has an Earnings ESP of +6.93% and a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.In the to-be-reported quarter, Dutch Bros’ earnings are expected to increase 6.3%. Dutch Bros’ earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 91.9%.Brinker International, Inc. EAT currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.28% and a Zacks Rank of 3. In the to-be-reported quarter, Brinker’s earnings are expected to register an 85.3% year-over-year surge. Brinker's earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average beat of 25.7%.Darden Restaurants, Inc. DRI has an Earnings ESP of +4.64% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.In the to-be-reported quarter, Darden’s earnings are expected to register a 3.5% year-over-year increase. Darden’s earnings beat estimates in one out of the trailing four quarters and missed thrice, with an average miss of 0.54%.Beyond Nvidia: AI's Second Wave Is HereThe AI revolution has already minted millionaires. But the stocks everyone knows about aren't likely to keep delivering the biggest profits. Little-known AI firms tackling the world's biggest problems may be more lucrative in the coming months and years.See "2nd Wave" AI stocks now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Starbucks Corporation (SBUX): Free Stock Analysis Report Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI): Free Stock Analysis Report Brinker International, Inc. (EAT): Free Stock Analysis Report Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks