Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) Is a Trending Stock: Facts to Know Before Betting on It

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) has been one of the most searched-for stocks on Zacks.com lately. So, you might want to look at some of the facts that could shape the stock's performance in the near term.Shares of this server technology company have returned -9.4% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +2.7% change. The Zacks Computer- Storage Devices industry, to which Super Micro belongs, has gained 1.4% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?Although media reports or rumors about a significant change in a company's business prospects usually cause its stock to trend and lead to an immediate price change, there are always certain fundamental factors that ultimately drive the buy-and-hold decision.Earnings Estimate RevisionsRather than focusing on anything else, we at Zacks prioritize evaluating the change in a company's earnings projection. This is because we believe the fair value for its stock is determined by the present value of its future stream of earnings.We essentially look at how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest business trends. And if earnings estimates go up for a company, the fair value for its stock goes up. A higher fair value than the current market price drives investors' interest in buying the stock, leading to its price moving higher. This is why empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.Super Micro is expected to post earnings of $0.55 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -26.7%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -25.1%.For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $2.53 points to a change of +22.8% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has changed -6%.For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $3.09 indicates a change of +22.4% from what Super Micro is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed -7.4%.With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) for Super Micro.The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:12 Month EPSProjected Revenue GrowthWhile earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company's financial health, nothing happens as such if a business isn't able to grow its revenues. After all, it's nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings for an extended period without increasing its revenues. So, it's important to know a company's potential revenue growth.For Super Micro, the consensus sales estimate for the current quarter of $6.35 billion indicates a year-over-year change of +6.9%. For the current and next fiscal years, $32.54 billion and $38.14 billion estimates indicate +48.1% and +17.2% changes, respectively.Last Reported Results and Surprise HistorySuper Micro reported revenues of $5.76 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +8.5%. EPS of $0.41 for the same period compares with $0.63 a year ago.Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.99 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of -3.82%. The EPS surprise was -6.82%.Over the last four quarters, Super Micro surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times. The company topped consensus revenue estimates two times over this period.ValuationWithout considering a stock's valuation, no investment decision can be efficient. In predicting a stock's future price performance, it's crucial to determine whether its current price correctly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects.Comparing the current value of a company's valuation multiples, such as its price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), to its own historical values helps ascertain whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, whereas comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of how reasonable its stock price is.The Zacks Value Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics to grade stocks from A to F (an A is better than a B; a B is better than a C; and so on), is pretty helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.Super Micro is graded D on this front, indicating that it is trading at a premium to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.ConclusionThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Super Micro. However, its Zacks Rank #5 does suggest that it may underperform the broader market in the near term.Zacks' Research Chief Names "Stock Most Likely to Double"Our team of experts has just released the 5 stocks with the greatest probability of gaining +100% or more in the coming months. Of those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian highlights the one stock set to climb highest.This top pick is a little-known satellite-based communications firm. Space is projected to become a trillion dollar industry, and this company's customer base is growing fast. Analysts have forecasted a major revenue breakout in 2025. Of course, all our elite picks aren't winners but this one could far surpass earlier Zacks' Stocks Set to Double like Hims & Hers Health, which shot up +209%.Free: See Our Top Stock And 4 Runners UpWant the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks