Visa Poised for a Q4 Surprise as Volumes Soar: Buy Before the Beat?

Visa Inc. V is set to report its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results on Oct. 28, 2025, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at $2.96 per shareon revenues of $10.61 billion.The estimate for fiscal fourth-quarter earnings has remained stable over the past 60 days. The bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year increase of 9.2%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests year-over-year growth of 10.3%. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchFor fiscal 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Visa’s revenues is pegged at $39.85 billion, implying a rise of 10.9% year over year. The consensus mark for EPS is pegged at $11.43, suggesting a jump of around 13.7% on a year-over-year basis.The payments juggernaut has a robust history of surpassing earnings estimates. It beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, with the average being 3.9%. This is depicted in the graph below:Visa Inc. Price and EPS Surprise Visa Inc. price-eps-surprise | Visa Inc. QuoteQ4 Earnings Whispers for VisaOur proven model predicts a likely earnings beat for Visa this time around as well. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s precisely the case here.Visa has an Earnings ESP of +3.70% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.Factors Shaping Visa’s Q4 ResultsThe Zacks Consensus Estimate suggests a 6.2% increase in total Gross Dollar Volume from the previous year, while our model predicts 5.5% growth. The growing adoption and popularity of digital payment methods are likely to contribute positively to Visa's overall fiscal fourth quarter results.As the company draws revenues as a set percentage of total transaction value every time a customer makes payments with a debit/credit card, higher spending means more revenues in the form of transaction processing fees. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal fourth-quarter total processed transactions indicates 10% year-over-year growth, whereas our model predicts a 9.5% increase.The consensus mark for total payment volumes indicates an 8.6% year-over-year increase. We expect the metric for U.S. operations alone to jump 7.3% year over year. Similarly, our model predicts 9.5% year-over-year growth in Latin America and 15.6% in CEMEA.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for data processing revenues indicates 13.3% growth in the fiscal fourth quarter from the year-ago level of $4.6 billion, while our estimate suggests a 13.9% increase. Similarly, the consensus mark for service revenues suggests 10.2% year-over-year growth, whereas we expect the metric to grow by 9.3%.Furthermore, the consensus estimate for international transaction revenues indicates 11.5% growth from a year ago, whereas our model predicts an 8.4% increase. Continuous growth in cross-border volumes is expected to have supported the metric.The factors stated above are expected to have positioned Visa for strong year-over-year growth and an earnings beat in the fiscal fourth quarter. However, rising expenses and client incentives (a contra-revenue item) are likely to have partially offset the positive impact of higher volumes.We expect adjusted total operating expenses for the quarter under review to increase 10.6% year over year due to increased Personnel, Professional Fees, G&A and Network and Processing expenses. Also, both the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for client incentives suggest that the metric will be well above $4 billion in the fiscal fourth quarter.Visa Price Performance & ValuationVisa's stock has gained 9.3% in the year-to-date period. It outperformed the industry’s 5% decline butunderperformed the S&P 500’s rise of 15.5%. In comparison, its peers like Mastercard Incorporated MA and American Express Company AXP have increased 8.5% and 18.6%, respectively, during this time.Price Performance – V, MA, AXP, Industry & S&P 500 Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchNow, let’s look at the value Visa offers investors at current levels.The company’s valuation looks somewhat stretched compared with the industry average. Currently, Visa is trading at 26.68X forward 12-month earnings, above the industry’s average of 21.48X. Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchIn comparison, Mastercard is even less attractively valued, trading at 30.88X forward 12-month earnings. American Express, on the other hand, is trading at 20.70X, offering a better value at the moment.How Should You Play Visa Ahead of Q4 Earnings?Visa’s stablecoin initiatives mark a defining shift in global payments, positioning the company to own a significant chunk of the infrastructure powering digital currencies rather than compete with them. By integrating stablecoins into its settlement network, Visa unlocks capital efficiency and faster cross-border transactions for banks, fintechs and enterprises. Regulatory clarity under the GENIUS Act further strengthens its long-term growth prospects. While competition from retail giants and ongoing antitrust scrutiny pose risks, Visa’s strong network effects, steady innovation and robust shareholder returns offer resilience.However, its current valuation suggests limited near-term upside, with shares outpacing peers like Mastercard but lagging the S&P 500. The upcoming earnings report will be crucial to gauge momentum across its stablecoin rollout, international expansion and value-added services. For now, investors may find it prudent to hold Visa, monitor its upcoming results and wait for clearer catalysts before increasing exposure.Radical New Technology Could Hand Investors Huge GainsQuantum Computing is the next technological revolution, and it could be even more advanced than AI.While some believed the technology was years away, it is already present and moving fast. Large hyperscalers, such as Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Oracle, and even Meta and Tesla, are scrambling to integrate quantum computing into their infrastructure.Senior Stock Strategist Kevin Cook reveals 7 carefully selected stocks poised to dominate the quantum computing landscape in his report, Beyond AI: The Quantum Leap in Computing Power.Kevin was among the early experts who recognized NVIDIA's enormous potential back in 2016. Now, he has keyed in on what could be "the next big thing" in quantum computing supremacy. Today, you have a rare chance to position your portfolio at the forefront of this opportunity.See Top Quantum Stocks Now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Mastercard Incorporated (MA): Free Stock Analysis Report Visa Inc. (V): Free Stock Analysis Report American Express Company (AXP): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks