Cameco Surges 99% in a Year: How to Play the Stock in 2026?

Cameco Corporation CCJ has surged 98.7% in the past year, significantly outperforming the Zacks Mining - Miscellaneous industry’ 41% growth. Over the same period, the Zacks Basic Materials sector has rallied 32.8% and the S&P 500 has risen 18.9%. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research However, other uranium peers Energy Fuels UUUU and Centrus Energy LEU have outperformed Cameco, soaring 239.6% and 330.7%, respectively, in the past year.  Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Against this backdrop, the sharp run-up in CCJ shares warrants a closer look at what is driving the stock’s momentum, how sustainable its growth outlook is, and whether chasing the gains at current valuation levels makes sense for investors.Cameco’s Mixed Q3 Results: Revenues Dip But EPS GainsCCJ’s third-quarter 2025 total revenues moved down 14.7% year over year to CAD 615 million ($446 million) due to the volume declines in both segments.Cameco reported a 2% increase in uranium production to 4.4 million pounds. Its share of production from Cigar Lake was 2.2 million pounds (up 47% year over year) and from McArthur River/Key Lake was 2.2 million pounds (down 21%).The company sold 6.1 million pounds of uranium in the quarter, 16% lower year over year. The decline in volumes, somewhat offset by 4% uptick in the Canadian dollar average realized price due to the impacts of fixed-price contracts on the portfolio, led to a 12.8% drop in CCJ’s uranium revenues to CAD 523 million ($379 million).In Fuel Services, production was down 3% year over year to 3.1 million kgUs, while sales volume plunged 46% to 1.9 million kgUs. The segment witnessed a 24% drop in revenues to CAD 91 million (CAD 66 million), as gains from a 42% increase in average realized prices were offset by lower volumes.Total cost of sales fell 20% to around CAD 385 million ($279 million) due to lower volumes. Cameco’s adjusted earnings gained 17% year over year to five cents per share in the third quarter.The company’s share of Westinghouse’s adjusted EBITDA was $124 million in the quarter compared with $122 million in the prior-year quarter. In October 2025, Westinghouse received the cash associated with its participation in the construction project for two nuclear reactors at the Dukovany power plant in the Czech Republic, led by Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power. Cameco received $171.5 million, representing its 49% share.At the end of the third quarter, CCJ had C$779 million ($565 million) in cash and cash equivalents, C$1 billion ($725 million) in long-term debt, and a C$1-billion ($725 million) undrawn revolving credit facility.CCJ had a total debt to total capital ratio of 0.13 as of Sept. 30, 2025. Meanwhile, Energy Fuels has a debt-free balance sheet, whilse LEU has a total debt to total capital ratio of 0.77.CCJ’s McArthur River Outlook Intact, Cigar Lake to OutperformCameco holds a 69.805% stake in the McArthur River mine and 83.33% in the Key Lake mill. McArthur River is known as the largest high-grade uranium mine globally and Key Lake is the world’s largest uranium mill. CCJ also holds a 54.547% stake in Cigar Lake, the world’s highest-grade uranium mine.Cameco had earlier revised its 2025 production outlook from the McArthur River mine due to development delays in transitioning the mine to new mining areas, as well as slower-than-anticipated ground freezing. Its share of production from the operation is projected at 9.8-10.5 million pounds. CCJ’s expected share from the Cigar Lake mine is maintained at 9.8 million pounds. Backed by Cigar Lake’s upbeat performance, Cameco expects it to help set off up to 1 million pounds (100% basis) of the production shortfall at the McArthur River.Cameco Narrowed 2025 Uranium Deliveries TargetCCJ revised its full-year target of uranium deliveries to 32-34 million pounds from the prior stated 31-34 million pounds. In 2024, CCJ delivered 33.6 million pounds of uranium. For 2025, uranium revenues were projected at CAD 2.8-3.0 billion, based on an average realized price of $87.00 per pound.In the fuel services segment, production is expected to have ranged between 13 million and 14 million kgU in 2025. Fuel services revenues are projected at $500-$550 million for 2025. This takes the total revenue guidance for 2025 to CAD 3.3-3.550 billion. The company had reported CAD 3.136 billion in revenues in 2024.CCJ Sees Mixed Earnings Revision ActivityThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cameco’s earnings for fiscal 2025 has been revised downward over the past 60 days, while the estimate for fiscal 2026 has moved up, as shown in the chart below. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Despite the revisions, the consensus estimate for Cameco’s earnings for fiscal 2025 indicates a year-over-year upsurge of 96%. The same for 2026 implies growth of 55%. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Cameco’s Valuation Remains StretchedCCJ stock is currently trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 17.92, far above the industry’s 1.44. Its Value Score of F also suggests an expensive valuation. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Despite trading at such a premium, Cameco is trading lower than Energy Fuels, which is currently trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 41.11. However, Centrus Energy is a cheaper bet at 11.13.CCJ Positioned Well to Benefit From Nuclear TailwindsGeopolitical events, energy security concerns and the global focus on the climate crisis amid rising demand for low-carbon energy have created tailwinds for the nuclear power industry. Given Cameco’s low-cost and high-grade assets and diversified portfolio spanning the nuclear fuel cycle, it is well-positioned to capitalize on these trends. The U.S. Geological Survey’s addition of uranium to its 2025 Critical Minerals List further highlights its strategic importance for national security and domestic supply chains.CCJ continues to invest in increasing production to capitalize on market opportunities. Cameco is extending Cigar Lake’s mine life to 2036 and ramping McArthur River/Key Lake output toward its licensed annual capacity of 25 million pounds.Cameco, along with Brookfield, entered a strategic partnership with the U.S. government to accelerate the deployment of Westinghouse Electric Company’s nuclear reactor technologies and reinvigorate supply chains and the nuclear power industrial base in the United States and abroad. The U.S. government’s aggregate investment of at least $80 billion will create significant growth opportunities for both Westinghouse and Cameco.Our Final Take on Cameco StockCCJ’s strong balance sheet and strategic investments position it well to benefit from an expected upswing in uranium demand. However, given the stock’s elevated valuation following a sharp rally, new investors may prefer to wait for a more attractive entry point. Cameco currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). 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(LEU): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks