Nutrien Stock Rallies 40% YTD: What's Behind the Upside?

Nutrien Ltd.’s NTR shares have popped 40.5% so far this year, outperforming the industry’s 14.8% gain and the S&P 500’s 18.3% rise.Price Performance of NTR vs. Industry and S&P 500Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchLet’s take a look at the factors that are driving this fertilizer maker. Global Fertilizer Demand Strength Supports NTR’s RallyNTR’s rally has been underpinned by a combination of favorable agricultural market conditions, effective operational execution and improving investor confidence. The key driver has been sustained global fertilizer demand — particularly for potash, nitrogen and phosphate — bolstered by expectations of strong crop production and higher input requirements in 2025, alongside tight inventories and limited new supply. Healthy demand from major markets such as North America, Brazil and Southeast Asia has supported firm pricing and higher sales volumes, prompting Nutrien to lift its 2025 potash sales outlook to around 14-14.5 million tons after delivering record shipment levels in the first nine months of the year. Nutrien is also gaining from acquisitions and the growing adoption of its digital platform. It continues expanding in Brazil and plans to use free cash flow to pursue targeted growth investments and tuck-in acquisitions across its retail business in 2025. Operational Leverage & Cash Flow Reinforce ConfidenceOperational performance and financial results have further strengthened investor confidence. In the third quarter of 2025, Nutrien delivered strong EBITDA growth, supported by higher fertilizer sales volumes and firmer pricing across all segments, with potash, nitrogen and retail each contributing meaningfully, reflecting improved operating leverage alongside continued portfolio optimization and cost-control initiatives. The company reported margin expansion and a sharp increase in free cash flow, which provided flexibility to return capital to its shareholders through dividends and share buybacks totaling well over $1 billion in the first nine months, underscoring Nutrien’s disciplined capital allocation and balance-sheet strength. Nutrien Advances Cost Cuts & Efficiency GainsNutrien’s cost and operational efficiency efforts are set to further support performance. The company is focused on lowering potash production costs and has implemented several strategic actions to reduce controllable expenses and improve free cash flow. With accelerated efficiency and savings initiatives, Nutrien expects to achieve about $200 million in total cost reductions in 2025 and is currently ahead of schedule on this target. NTR’s Zacks Rank & Key PicksNTR currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Some better-ranked stocks in the basic materials space include Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited HMY and Paladin Energy Ltd PALAF. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Agnico Eagle’s current-year earnings is pegged at $7.78 per share. AEM, currently flaunting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 12%. The company's shares have surged 115.2% year to date. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HMY’s current-year earnings is pegged at $2.68 per share. HMY carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present. The company's shares have soared 148.5% year to date. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PALAF’s current-year earnings is pegged at 5 cents per share. PALAF currently carries a Zacks Rank #2. The company's shares have risen 31.7% year to date. 5 Stocks Set to DoubleEach was handpicked by a Zacks expert as the favorite stock to gain +100% or more in the months ahead. They includeStock #1: A Disruptive Force with Notable Growth and ResilienceStock #2: Bullish Signs Signaling to Buy the DipStock #3: One of the Most Compelling Investments in the MarketStock #4: Leader In a Red-Hot Industry Poised for GrowthStock #5: Modern Omni-Channel Platform Coiled to SpringMost of the stocks in this report are flying under Wall Street radar, which provides a great opportunity to get in on the ground floor. While not all picks can be winners, previous recommendations have soared +171%, +209% and +232%.Download Atomic Opportunity: Nuclear Energy's Comeback free today.Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM): Free Stock Analysis Report Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY): Free Stock Analysis Report Paladin Energy Ltd. (PALAF): Free Stock Analysis Report Nutrien Ltd. (NTR): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks