Should You Buy, Sell or Hold Pfizer Stock Ahead of Q4 Earnings?

Pfizer PFE is set to report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings on Feb. 3, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales and earnings for the fourth quarter is pegged at $16.93 billion and 57 cents per share, respectively. Estimates for Pfizer’s 2026 earnings have declined from $3.15 to $2.99 per share over the past 60 days.PFE Estimate MovementImage Source: Zacks Investment ResearchPFE’s Earnings Surprise HistoryThe healthcare bellwether’s performance has been solid, with the company exceeding earnings expectations in each of the trailing four quarters. It delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 35.33%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 31.82%, as seen in the chart below.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchWhat Does Our Model Say?Pfizer has an Earnings ESP of -3.24% and a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) at present.You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.Per our proven model, companies with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1, #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) have a good chance of delivering an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.Factors Shaping PFE’s Upcoming ResultsHigher sales of products like Vyndaqel family, Eliquis, Padcev and Lorbrena are likely to have driven top-line growth. However, sales of some other key products like Prevnar and Xeljanz, declined in the third quarter. It remains to be seen if their sales improved in the fourth quarter.The higher manufacturer discounts resulting from the Medicare Part D redesign under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) are likely to have impacted U.S. revenues, particularly sales of Vyndaqel, Ibrance and Xtandi.Among the newer products, while sales of Nurtec ODT/Vydura and Cibinqo are likely to have risen, those of RSV vaccine, Abrysvo, are expected to have declined.Expectations for PFE’s Primary Care SegmentIn Primary Care, alliance revenues and direct sales from Eliquis are likely to have risen, driven by higher demand trends globally, partially offset by price and generic erosion in some ex-U.S. markets. Sales of key vaccine Prevnar are likely to have declined due to lower demand in the United States, partially offset by higher sales in ex-U.S. marketsThe Zacks Consensus Estimate for alliance revenues from Eliquis is $2.14 billion.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of the Prevnar family of vaccines is $1.65 billion.Pfizer records direct sales and alliance revenues from its partner, BioNTech BNTX, for the COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty. Revenues from Pfizer/BioNTech’s Comirnaty are likely to have declined in the fourth quarter due to narrower COVID-19 vaccine recommendations in the United States that have reduced Comirnaty’s eligible patient population. Sales of the antiviral pill for COVID, Paxlovid, should also have declined due to lower infection rates, which hurt demand trends.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for direct sales and alliance revenues from Comirnaty is $2.0 billion, while that for Paxlovid is $289.0 million.Expectations for PFE’s Oncology SegmentPfizer’s oncology sales in the fourth quarter are expected to have been driven by higher sales of key drugs like Xtandi, Lorbrena and the Braftovi-Mektovi combination, which should make up for declining sales of drugs like Ibrance.As regards the antibody-drug conjugates or ADCs added from 2023’s Seagen acquisition, competitive pressure in the United States is likely to have hurt sales of Adcetris, while strong demand trends are likely to have benefited Padcev’s sales.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Padcev is $527 million, while that for Ibrance is $1.03 billion.Expectations for PFE’s Specialty Care SegmentIn the Specialty Care unit, while sales of Vyndaqel are expected to have remained strong, driven by continued demand growth, sales of Xeljanz and Enbrel are likely to have declined.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of Vyndaqel/Vyndamax is $1.66 billion.In December, Pfizer issued its financial guidance for 2026. Pfizer expects total revenues for 2026 to be between $59.5 billion and $62.5 billion, while adjusted earnings per share are expected in the range of $2.80-$3.00. Pfizer will most likely maintain its 2026 financial guidance on the fourth-quarter conference call.PFE’s EPS in the fourth quarter should include a one-time acquired in-process R&D charge related to the acquisition of obesity drugmaker Metsera, which closed in November after a heated bidding war with Novo Nordisk NVO.Nonetheless, a single quarter’s results are not so important for long-term investors. Let us delve deeper to understand whether to buy, sell or hold Pfizer stock.PFE’s Price Performance & ValuationIn the past year, Pfizer’s stock has declined 1.6% against a return of 16.4% for the industry.Pfizer Stock PerformanceImage Source: Zacks Investment ResearchFrom a valuation standpoint, Pfizer appears attractive relative to the industry and is trading below its five-year mean. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the shares currently trade at 8.84 forward earnings, lower than 18.18 for the industry and the stock’s five-year mean of 10.25. Pfizer’s stock is much cheaper than other large drugmakers like Lilly, Novo Nordisk, J&J, Merck, AstraZeneca, AbbVie and others.PFE Stock ValuationImage Source: Zacks Investment ResearchInvestment Thesis on PFE StockPfizer’s dependence on its COVID business has now reduced. Pfizer’s non-COVID operational revenues are improving, driven by its key in-line products like Vyndaqel, Padcev and Eliquis, new launches and newly acquired products like Nurtec and those from Seagen (December 2023). Pfizer expects its new and acquired products to deliver double-digit growth in 2026.Pfizer is one of the largest and most successful drugmakers in oncology. The addition of Seagen strengthened its position in oncology. Oncology sales comprise around 28% of its total revenues. Pfizer also advanced its oncology clinical pipeline with several candidates entering late-stage development. By 2030, it expects to have eight or more blockbuster oncology medicines in its portfolio.Pfizer is also trying to rebuild its pipeline through acquisitions. In the first nine months of this year, Pfizer invested approximately $1.6 billion in business development transactions, primarily reflecting the 3SBio licensing deal. In addition, the recent $10 billion Metsera acquisition has brought Pfizer back into the lucrative obesity space after it scrapped the development of danuglipron, a weight-loss pill, earlier this year.However, Pfizer faces several challenges. Pfizer is seeing declining sales of its COVID products, Comirnaty and Paxlovid, due to lower vaccination rates and COVID infection rates.Pfizer expects a significant negative impact on revenues from the loss of exclusivity (LOE) in the 2026-2030 period as several of its key products, including Eliquis, Vyndaqel, Ibrance, Xeljanz and Xtandi, face patent expirations. The LOE cliff is expected to hurt sales by approximately $1.5 billion in 2026.Unfavorable impact from the Medicare Part D redesign under the IRA hurt Pfizer’s revenues in 2025. Higher-priced drugs, including Eliquis, Vyndaqel, Ibrance, Xtandi and Xeljanz, are most affected by the IRA. The negative impact is expected to continue in 2026.Long-Term Investors May Stay Invested in PFE StockPfizer’s stock has taken a beating for the past three years as its revenues have declined substantially due to lower sales of its COVID products. In addition to fading COVID-19 product-related revenues, Pfizer faces some other challenges, like U.S. Medicare Part D headwinds and the upcoming LOE cliff. The company’s recent lukewarm guidance has built a negative sentiment around the stock.The declining estimates for 2026 also reflect analysts’ pessimistic outlook for the stock. It remains to be seen if Pfizer’s key drugs like Vyndaqel and Padcev, and its recently launched and acquired products, help the company offset its LOEs over the next several years.It might be a good idea for short-term investors to avoid this stock for now. However, long-term investors may continue to hold the stock in their portfolio as Pfizer rebuilds its pipeline in oncology and obesity, which it believes can drive growth from 2029 and beyond.5 Stocks Set to DoubleEach was handpicked by a Zacks expert as the favorite stock to gain +100% or more in the months ahead. 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(PFE): Free Stock Analysis Report Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO): Free Stock Analysis Report BioNTech SE Sponsored ADR (BNTX): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks