NIKE & On Holding Go Head-to-Head: Which Stock Has the Edge?

The global athletic footwear and apparel market is entering a defining phase, and few rivalries capture this shift better than NIKE Inc. NKE vs. On Holding AG ONON. On one side stands NIKE, the undisputed leader with unmatched scale, global reach and decades of dominance across performance and lifestyle categories. On the other side is On Holding, a fast-rising challenger that has carved out a distinct premium niche, winning over runners and style-conscious consumers with its innovation-led, performance-first positioning.This face-off is not just about size versus speed, but about how market share is defended versus how it is taken. NIKE operates a diversified, mass-to-premium business model spanning footwear, apparel and equipment across virtually every major geography. On Holding, in contrast, remains tightly focused, leveraging a narrower product portfolio and a premium pricing strategy to steadily expand its footprint in key markets.As consumer preferences evolve and competition intensifies, the contrast in market position, scale and business approach makes this matchup a compelling lens through which to assess where the athleticwear industry may be headed next.The Case for NKENIKE’s investment case continues to rest on its dominant scale and market share leadership in the global sportswear industry. The company remains the world’s largest athleticwear brand, commanding an estimated high-teens share of the global sportswear market, far ahead of peers, supported by its unmatched reach across nearly 190 countries.In first-quarter fiscal 2026, NIKE demonstrated renewed momentum, driven by the disciplined execution of its “Win Now” strategy and a steady recovery in its wholesale order book, reflecting early traction from its operational reset. Market leadership is reinforced by a broad portfolio spanning footwear, apparel and equipment across performance and lifestyle segments, anchored by the NIKE, Jordan and Converse brands, each targeting distinct consumer cohorts and price points.NIKE is refocusing on sport-led growth through its “Win Now” actions and newly activated Sport Offense model, reorganizing teams by sport rather than category to sharpen innovation and storytelling. Running has emerged as a key proof point, delivering more than 20% growth in first-quarter fiscal 2026, while wholesale momentum has improved as partners regain confidence in NIKE’s product pipeline.Brand positioning remains premium yet inclusive, appealing to performance athletes, lifestyle consumers and younger demographics through deep athlete partnerships, immersive retail concepts and a strong innovation stack across Air, Flyknit and ZoomX platforms. Digital remains a strategic pillar, though NIKE is deliberately sacrificing short-term traffic to reposition NIKE Direct as a healthier, more full-price business.However, the company’s outlook is balanced by its strong fundamentals and ongoing material headwinds. NKE witnesses gross margin pressures from increased promotional activity, unfavorable channel mix and rising costs. Greater China continues to weigh on growth amid structural weakness and promotional challenges. Tariff dynamics represent an additional risk, with management estimating $1.5 billion in annualized incremental costs and a 120-basis-point gross margin headwind in fiscal 2026. Combined with cautious consumers and uneven regional recoveries, these factors suggest NIKE’s turnaround is progressing, but likely to remain non-linear, warranting a measured, neutral investment stance.The Case for ONONOn Holding’s investment case is defined by outsized growth and fundamental brand strength from a still-small market share base. While ONON commands only a low-single-digit share of the global sportswear market, it has established a defensible position in the premium performance segment, particularly in running. Footwear remains the core engine, contributing to the majority of sales, while apparel has emerged as a fast-growing incremental pillar, signaling expanding wallet share rather than simple category substitution. On Holding differentiates itself through a clear premium-first philosophy. Innovation sits at the core of the business, with proprietary technologies and athlete validation reinforcing credibility at the highest levels of sport before filtering down to everyday consumers.On Holding positions itself as a pure-play premium sportswear brand, distinct from mass-market industry participants. Its portfolio is tightly curated around performance credibility, anchored by CloudTec, Cloudmonster and LightSpray technologies, then extended into lifestyle through design-forward silhouettes and selective cultural collaborations. ONON’s target demographics skew toward affluent, design-conscious and younger consumers, particularly Gen Z and urban professionals, supported by athlete validation and partnerships spanning running, tennis and fashion. The business model emphasizes controlled distribution, disciplined full-price selling and a growing direct-to-consumer mix, which enhances brand equity and customer lifetime value while avoiding promotional dilution.From a financial and operational standpoint, On Holding is transitioning from a high-growth disruptor to a more structurally profitable brand. Margin expansion is being driven by premium pricing, a rising direct mix and operational efficiencies rather than aggressive cost-cutting. Digital capabilities, including data-driven planning and AI-enabled tools, are improving speed, inventory discipline and customer engagement.While scaling a premium brand globally carries execution risks, On Holding’s focused portfolio, strong brand positioning and emphasis on full-price demand underpin a fundamentally sound long-term investment thesis grounded in quality growth rather than volume-led expansion.How Does Zacks Consensus Estimate Compare for NKE & ONON?The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NIKE’s fiscal 2026 sales implies year-over-year growth of 0.9%, while the EPS estimate suggests a decline of 23.6%. The EPS estimate has moved up by a penny in the past 30 days. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research The Zacks Consensus Estimate for On Holding’s 2025 sales suggests year-over-year growth of 41.2%, while that for EPS indicates a decline of 12.7%. The EPS estimate has moved up 3.2% in the past 30 days. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research This clearly illustrates that both NIKE and On Holding have witnessed upward estimate revision trends in the past 30 days. Moreover, estimates for both NKE and ONON indicate year-over-year declines in earnings for the current year.Price Performance & Valuation of NKE & ONONShares of NIKE have shown soft performance trends in the past six months due to the ongoing troubles in its business and the rising tariff concerns. Meanwhile, shares of On Holding reflect momentum, driven by strong brand momentum across regions and growth in the premium performance running and adjacent lifestyle categories. In the past three months, NIKE shares have lost 7.1%, while the On Holding stock has rallied 7.3%. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research NIKE is trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 31.13X, above its median of 28.33X in the last three years. On Holding’s forward P/E multiple sits at 28.62X, below its median of 49.63X in the last three years. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research The valuation contrast between NIKE and On Holding highlights a shifting investor narrative within the global sportswear space. On Holding appears undervalued relative to its growth profile and historical market treatment. ONON’s lower valuation suggests cautious expectations, but with its premium positioning and brand momentum intact, it offers attractive upside potential as execution continues.NIKE’s valuation sits above its recent norm, showing the market expects a strong recovery, but this confidence leaves little room for missteps as the company navigates a complex turnaround amid macro and competitive pressures.ConclusionIn this face-off, On Holding emerges as the clearer winner from an investment perspective, driven by stronger recent stock momentum, a more compelling valuation and a runway for sustained growth. The market is increasingly rewarding ONON for its focused premium strategy, brand-led execution and ability to expand without diluting pricing or identity. Importantly, recent estimate revisions point toward growing investor confidence in the company’s earnings potential, reinforcing the view that ONON is still in the early innings of scaling a high-quality global brand.NIKE, meanwhile, remains a formidable industry leader with unmatched scale, brand equity and long-term relevance. However, its current narrative is more about stabilization and execution than acceleration. With valuation already reflecting recovery expectations, progress will need to be consistent to justify further upside.In contrast, ONON combines growth prospects with improving profitability and a valuation that leaves room for positive surprise, positioning it as the more attractive opportunity in this face-off as the athleticwear industry evolves. NIKE currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), whereas On Holding sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.5 Stocks Set to DoubleEach was handpicked by a Zacks expert as the #1 favorite stock to gain +100% or more in the coming year. While not all picks can be winners, previous recommendations have soared +112%, +171%, +209% and +232%.Most of the stocks in this report are flying under Wall Street radar, which provides a great opportunity to get in on the ground floor.Today, See These 5 Potential Home Runs >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report NIKE, Inc. (NKE): Free Stock Analysis Report On Holding AG (ONON): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks