Netflix Plunges 12% Post Q3 Earnings: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Netflix NFLX shares tumbled 12% following the streaming giant's third-quarter 2025 earnings release, as a one-time Brazilian tax charge overshadowed otherwise solid operational results. The stock decline reflects investor sensitivity to profitability metrics despite the company's sustained revenue momentum and strategic progress in key growth areas, including advertising and live programming.Q3 Earnings Miss Masks Underlying StrengthNFLX reported third-quarter revenues of $11.51 billion, representing 17% year-over-year growth, which missed the consensus mark by 0.12%. Earnings per share of $5.87 fell significantly short of the consensus mark by 14.8%, primarily due to a $619 million charge related to a Brazilian Supreme Court ruling on technology transfer taxes. Management emphasized that, in the absence of this expense, operating margins would have exceeded the 31.5% forecast, reaching approximately 33%. The charge covers periods from 2022 through the third quarter of 2025, with only 20% attributable to the current year. Importantly, executives stated this matter should not materially impact future results, suggesting the earnings miss represents an accounting adjustment rather than fundamental business deterioration.The company maintained its full-year 2025 revenue guidance of $45.1 billion, indicating 16% annual growth, though it lowered operating margin expectations to 29% from 30% due to the tax matter. Revenue growth accelerated across all regions, with the United States and Canada posting 17% gains as pricing changes implemented in January took full effect. Netflix raised subscription prices across all tiers at the start of 2025, with the ad-supported plan increasing to $7.99 monthly, the standard plan to $17.99, and the premium tier to $24.99.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 revenues is pegged at $45.09 billion, indicating 15.61% year-over-year growth. The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at $25.43 per share, indicating a 28.24% increase from the previous year.Netflix, Inc. Price and Consensus Netflix, Inc. price-consensus-chart | Netflix, Inc. QuoteAdvertising Momentum and Live Content StrategyA significant bright spot in the quarter was the advertising business, which recorded its best quarter to date and remains on track to more than double revenues in 2025 from a relatively small base. The ad-supported tier now boasts 94 million monthly active users globally, with U.S. members averaging 41 hours of monthly engagement. Management indicated that upfront advertising commitments more than doubled. The company has invested heavily in building its proprietary ad technology platform, partnering with major programmatic players, including The Trade Desk, Google DV360, and Magnite to expand reach and targeting capabilities.Netflix's expansion into live programming represents another strategic pillar for future growth. The platform successfully launched WWE Monday Night Raw in January 2025 under a 10-year, $10 billion deal, delivering consistent weekly programming. Two NFL Christmas Day games are scheduled for December 2025, featuring competitive matchups, including the Kansas City Chiefs versus the Pittsburgh Steelers. The company has also streamed high-profile boxing events, with the Jake Paul-Mike Tyson fight attracting 108 million global viewers despite technical challenges. These live events drive advertising revenues and reduce subscriber churn while attracting younger demographics.Technology and Content Innovation Aids ProspectsThe streaming leader is aggressively pursuing artificial intelligence integration across its platform. Management confirmed the company is using generative AI for content production, with the Argentine series The Eternaut featuring AI-generated visual effects that reduced production time and costs by a factor of ten. AI applications extend to personalized recommendations, which drive approximately 80% of viewing, dynamic advertising formats, and content discovery features, including a ChatGPT-powered search tool piloted in select markets. Netflix released production guidance for creators to ensure responsible AI implementation while maintaining creative quality standards.The fourth-quarter content slate includes highly anticipated titles led by the first volume of Stranger Things' fifth and final season launching Nov. 26. Guillermo del Toro's Frankenstein adaptation and Rian Johnson's Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery anchor the film lineup. The series finale of Stranger Things will receive a simultaneous theatrical and streaming release on New Year's Eve, marking a strategic shift toward limited theatrical distribution for select premium content.Share Price Movement, Valuation, and Competitive LandscapeNetflix shares declined from approximately $1,240 before third-quarter earnings to roughly $1,095, erasing gains accumulated through the summer months when the stock peaked near $1,341 in June. The 12% post-earnings drop reduced year-to-date gains to approximately 25%, though the stock remains up significantly on a trailing 12-month basis.NFLX’s Share-Price MovementImage Source: Zacks Investment ResearchAt current levels, Netflix trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 35.46 times, reflecting expectations for earnings growth to justify the premium multiple relative to the broader Zacks Broadcast Radio and Television industry's average of 28.53 times. Netflix maintains advantages in scale, with more than 247 million global subscribers and market-leading engagement metrics, but must continue executing on content differentiation, advertising growth, and live programming to justify its valuation premium.NFLX’s P/E F12M Ratio Depicts Stretched ValuationImage Source: Zacks Investment ResearchThe competitive landscape has intensified as rivals Amazon AMZN, Disney DIS and Apple AAPL, among others, invest heavily in content and technology. Amazon Prime Video continues expanding its sports programming portfolio, securing exclusive NFL Thursday Night Football rights and adding NBA games to complement its extensive content library, while Amazon Prime Video leverages its parent company's retail ecosystem for commerce integration and Amazon Prime Video recently unveiled AI-powered content discovery features similar to Netflix's initiatives. Disney+ has grown its ad-supported subscriber base by 65% year over year, with 90% of Hulu's 50 million subscribers choosing ad-supported plans, demonstrating Disney's success in the advertising space that Netflix is targeting, and Disney+ benefits from its unmatched portfolio of franchises, including Marvel, Star Wars, and Pixar properties that provide built-in audience loyalty. Apple TV+ pursues a quality-over-quantity strategy with critically acclaimed series, including the upcoming Pluribus from Breaking Bad creator Vince Gilligan and Severance's highly anticipated second season, while Apple TV+ leverages its hardware ecosystem to bundle services, and Apple TV+ focuses on premium storytelling that garners awards recognition.Investment Outlook and RecommendationFor investors, Netflix presents a nuanced picture. Existing shareholders should maintain positions as the fundamental business remains healthy with multiple growth drivers intact. The advertising business trajectory, live programming expansion, international growth, and technological innovation provide confidence in Netflix's ability to sustain mid-teens revenue growth. However, prospective investors may benefit from patience, waiting for greater clarity on 2026 financial targets and evidence that the advertising business can maintain momentum beyond the initial scaling phase. A more attractive entry point could emerge in early 2026 once full-year guidance provides better visibility into sustainable profitability trends. NFLX currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.Beyond Nvidia: AI's Second Wave Is HereThe AI revolution has already minted millionaires. But the stocks everyone knows about aren't likely to keep delivering the biggest profits. Little-known AI firms tackling the world's biggest problems may be more lucrative in the coming months and years.See "2nd Wave" AI stocks now >>Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN): Free Stock Analysis Report Apple Inc. (AAPL): Free Stock Analysis Report Netflix, Inc. (NFLX): Free Stock Analysis Report The Walt Disney Company (DIS): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).Zacks Investment ResearchWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei Zacks